VentureBeat

What Apple has is a published application, not a granted patent. It will take 2-3 years and there will be a lot of changes before a patent is issued. Most patent applications are filed with many broad claims which cannot be accepted by the examiner. I wish people would quit confusing patent applications with granted patents--the two are very different beasts.

Matt,

How long did it take the Razr to supplant the other installed-base cell phones out there as the go-to for the teen (primarily the pink one for girl teens), college, and the "I want to slip this in the back pocket of my tight, $150 jeans" crowd?

Motorola has sold 12m of them since its mass market launch in ~2005, and I highly doubt that any meaningful percentage of that 12m were first-time phones.

This is a little different than the 67m+ iPods that have been sold since its launch in 2001, but it's a pretty good run rate, especially given further developments (pink ones, gold ones, the new KRAZR, etc.)

My point is, if there's a strong proposition there (REALLY strong--like 3x as compelling as their current solution), people have little difficulty abandoning their current situation, especially those with the money to do so.

If the iPhone can solve the "why do i have two data appliances in my pockets, when each has the processing power to do the other's job" problem, and do it well (unlike the ROKR), with a 360 degree solution (computer sync for contacts and media content, big screen, compelling user interface, on the fly download from an easy-to-use service, good phone performance, etc.), Apple can probably steal a march on the rest of the industry.

But if they end up pulling the same kind of BS that other handset makers do, like disabling bluetooth networking such that I can't use my Treo 650's Verizon EVDO connection to surf with my laptop, and abusing their users in deference to carriers and other stakeholders (which Apple's track record with iTunes DRM points towards a mild proclivity to do), then they're probably in for a much tougher road ahead.

Apple has a strong set of retail channels themselves (online, Apple Stores), though, and may be in a position to not have to kowtow to carriers to gain access to their retail counters and be featured in their "bundled package" deals. The question is, will the product be compelling enough that users will seek it out, and plop down $300 on their own (which iPod has proven people will do), rather than expect a subsidized phone of the sort that most people acquire from their carriers (in exchange for two years of contract lock-in).

But even here, there's evidence that suggests this seeking can happen with the right product. When the RAZR first launched, it was positioned as a luxury good, that sold for $600+ without a plan, and $500 or so even with a plan. The point is, there is a segment, of tastemakers no less, who will pay top dollar for compelling solutions. If the iPhone pulls together the right mix of features to do to cell phones (notoriously infuriating pieces of technology) what they did to MP3 players, it shouldn't take Apple's hammer long to fall at all.

Pete