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Between now and Christmas, early adopters of the new hardware from Microsoft and Sony will have a number of games to choose from, and Cowen and Company analyst Doug Creutz expects those consumers to purchase about three games for each new console sold.
In a note to investors, Creutz explained that he is expecting an “overall next-gen holiday attach rate of 3.25.”
“In the last cycle, the Xbox 360 enjoyed a 4.2 launch window software attach rate while the PS3 was much lower at 1.9,” said Creutz. “However, in terms of total customer hardware/software spending, both devices were fairly similar in the mid-$600 range.”
That’s because the Xbox 360 cost $300 to $400 at launch while the PS sold for $500 to $600. Xbox 360 gamers could afford to spend a bit more on games.
“Using slightly more conservative assumptions for the PS4 and Xbox One, we assume a 3.25 overall attach rate, which suggests that the average attach rate [percentage] for launch titles will be in the 20 percent range.”
That means that, on average, about one out of five PlayStation 4 and Xbox One owners will pick up a launch title like Assassin’s Creed IV: Black Flag. Although, that ratio increases for certain other games.
“We are assuming a 30 percent launch window attach rate for Battlefield 4, which based on its PS4 Metacritic score of 87 is the highest-rated next-gen launch title other than FIFA 14,” said Creutz. “Last cycle, the highest-rated first-person shooters achieved launch-window attach rates of 84 percent on the Xbox 360 (Call of Duty 2) and 47 percent on the PlayStation 3 (Resistance: Fall of Man).”
Even while Creutz expects Battlefield 4 to do well on the next-gen consoles, he still expects Call of Duty: Ghosts to outsell it.
“We also expect Madden NFL 25 and NBA 2K14 to have high U.S. launch window attach rates based on historical data,” said the analyst. That data showed that
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