That might sound a little melodramatic, given that the recorded history of PC shipments only goes back to 1994. But with a drop of 13.9 percent — almost double the expected 7.7 percent — to only 76.3 million units, the first quarter of 2013 has been a disaster for traditional PC manufacturers.

Even a new version of Windows, once a guaranteed shot in the arm for PC shipments, failed to stimulate demand. Quite the opposite.

“At this point, unfortunately, it seems clear that the Windows 8 launch not only failed to provide a positive boost to the PC market, but appears to have slowed the market,” Bob O’Donnell, an IDC vice-president, said in a statement.

O’Donnell says that with its radical user interface changes, subtraction of the familiar Start button, and extra costs that come with Windows 8-equipped PCs that take advantage of its touch capabilities “have made PCs a less attractive alternative to dedicated tablets and other competitive devices.”

Ouch.

In the U.S., this marks the tenth consecutive quarter of year-on-year declines, and quarterly shipments reached their lowest level since early 2006. Europe was down as well, and even growing China and the rest of the Asia Pacific region dropped 12.7 percent, the first double-digit decline in PC shipments there.

HP remains the top PC vendor globally, IDC said, but its shipments fell 23 percent year-over-year, and it was almost surpassed by Lenovo, which astonishingly had double-digit growth in a sinking market. Dell dropped 10 percent as well, and Acer, Asus, and Toshiba also dropped somewhat.

Even Apple, which has seen strong growth in recent years, particularly in laptops, had shipments decline 7.5 percent to 1.4 million.

IDC seems interested in blaming Windows 8, but the more likely culprit is surging sales of tablets, which some analysts are including in “PC” shipment numbers. In fact, some analysts believe that this year is the year tablet sales will outpace traditional PC sales, with quarterly sales of 55-60 million.

Given this quarter’s numbers, it looks like the crossover point could be as soon as the next three months. But whether that happens or not, big changes are in store for PC vendors:

“The industry is going through a critical crossroads, and strategic choices will have to be made as to how to compete with the proliferation of alternative devices and remain relevant to the consumer,” David Daoud, IDC Research Director, said in a statement. “Vendors will have to revisit their organizational structures and go-to-market strategies, as well as their supply chain, distribution, and product portfolios in the face of shrinking demand and looming consolidation.”

photo credit: amygentle77 via photopin cc

July 9-10, 2013
San Francisco, CA

Early Bird Tickets on Sale

Google’s mobile operating system Android may be winning the smartphone wars, with over 75 percent market share. But Apple and Microsoft could be making more from Android than Google — up to 600 percent more next year.

This past weekend, Apple and HTC signed a patent cross-licensing deal that, according to one analyst, could see Apple collect between $6 and $8 for each and every Android smartphone HTC sells. And Microsoft, which has been working on licensing its patents to Android manufacturers for a number of years and has licensing deals with LG, Acer, Samsung, and many other companies, collects as much as $5 per device.

Google, on the other hand, though it has not broken out Android revenue, makes as little as $1.70 per Android device, per year, Asymco calculates, based on data Google was forced to reveal in court filings. Even at $2 a device, that’s only a sixth as much as the combined $12 that Microsoft and Apple could make for each Android smartphone.

This assumes, of course, that Microsoft collects royalties from all Android manufacturers … and that Apple will duplicate its HTC licensing deal with Samsung and all the other smartphone companies. And those are big assumptions.

But Microsoft has already been shown to make more from Android than from its own Windows phones. And some kind of licensing deals will have to be done, surely, unless Apple and Samsung plan to dual-handedly ensure the future financial viability of the legal profession. Which, arguably, they’ve taken a good crack at already.

Three good things from Google’s perspective: Up to April of this year it’s made perhaps three times as much on iOS phones and tablets as it has on its own Android devices (perhaps less now with iOS 6 and no Google Maps), mobile ad revenues are rising across the board, and the amount it makes on each Android device recurs every single year.

All of which means the trends are good for Google, although there may be pressure to increase revenues in ways that could harm the Android user experience. But things are also good for Apple and Microsoft, which stand to make money on their own mobile ecosystems as well as Google’s.

Which is kind of like having your cake and eating it too.

photo credit: JD Hancock via photopin cc

PC optimization software Soluto helps over three million people in 182 countries get more out of their PCs. Along the way, the company learns a lot about what people do … and how their software works. Fortunately for us, the company shared that data a couple of days ago.

Here are some of the highlights:

European nations such as Hungary and Portugal are adopting Windows 8 quickly, with almost 9 percent adoption in Hungary and 5.29 percent in Portugal. China is also moving quickly, with more than seven percent of Windows users already on Microsoft’s new operating system. Americans, however, are adopting more of wait and see approach, with only 3.4 percent of Windows users updating.

In addition, with the touch-friendliness of Microsoft’s new operating system, Windows 8 is penetrating the tablet market much more effectively than Windows 7. For example, while less than two percent of Windows 7 machines are tablets, almost five percent of Windows 8 machines are, in fact, tablet computers — before Surface has really had a chance to make an impact yet.

Not actually a Windows 8 install disc

Interestingly, desktop use is also slightly higher, with almost 51 percent of Windows 8 installs being on a desktop PC, versus 48.5 percent of Windows 7 installs being on a laptop.

Some apps, Soluto found, crash less frequently on Windows 8.

That includes Google Drive, which is the most common app crash culprit on Windows 7, crashing for almost a third of all users (I guess companies can be great at everything). In Windows 8, however, Google Drive crashes for only one percent of users. TuneUp Utilities is another in the much-improved category, moving from crashing for 20 percent of its users on Windows 7 to five percent on Windows 8.

Some apps, of course, crash more on Windows 8. Facebook Video Calling, for instance, crashes at least once a month for a rather unlucky 13 percent of its users, compared to just one percent on Windows 7. And Apple’s iTunes software, often maligned for being bloated, crashes almost twice as much on Window 8.

Soluto also tracks PC brands that users have purchase. The top PC brands being used by Windows 8 early adopters are HP and Dell, with most than 30 percent of the market, followed in fourth and fifth spot by Asus and Acer:

1. 16.83% – HP
2. 14.65% – Dell
3. 10.71% – Gigabyte
4. 10.32% – Asus
5. 8.72% – Acer

One thing about crashing apps: Third-party developers don’t have a lock on them. Microsoft’s own Internet Explorer still crashes about the same amount on Windows 8 as it always has.

photo credit: gynti_46 via photopin cc, Robert Couse-Baker via photopin cc

July 9-10, 2013
San Francisco, CA

Early Bird Tickets on Sale

Google: Tech giant, advertising ace … jealous lover?

Pressure from Google caused Acer to cancel the launch of its CloudMobile A800 smartphone today, Reuters reports. Journalists sent to cover the event in Shanghai, China were sent away with only “internal reasons” as the explanation for the cancellation.

The CloudMobile A800 was set to be the first device from Acer to run Aliyun, a cloud-based mobile operating system developed by Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba. Acer says it chose Aliyun because of its easy-to-use interface, but it’s likely that Acer was also looking to expand its smartphone offerings beyond just Android.

But that relationship didn’t fly with Google, which Alibaba says threatened to stop working with Acer if the company followed through on its Aliyun plans.

“Our partner received notification from Google that if the new product launch with Aliyun went ahead, Google would terminate Android product cooperation and related technical authorization with Acer,” Alibaba told Reuters in a statement.

Acer apparently complied with Google’s demands, and for one big reason: Acer needs Google a lot more than Google needs Acer.

What’s surprising about Google’s threats, however, is that they came despite the fact that, outside China, the CloudMobile will run on Android, not Aliyun.

One big question is what Acer’s decision means for the future of its relationship with Alibaba. Acer plans to announce another Aliyun-based smartpone next month, and a few more in the early part of next year. It’s unknown what the present situation means for those devices.

The success of new form factors for powerful computers (think iPhone, Droid, iPad) have inspired PC makers to redirect massive investment budgets towards tablets, TVs and superphones, and the platform of choice has been Android. Dell, Lenovo and Acer are all launching new mobile devices, and all have jumped on Google’s bandwagon.

In the midst of this Android lovefest, however, the biggest PC maker in the world appears to be increasingly going it alone. While it does have Android devices, the company has announced plans to acquire Palm and its WebOS software layer. That looks to VentureBeat like it plans to own its own mobile stack, platform and all. With a $40 billion PC business and big ambitions, we believe HP is on the verge of becoming the new mobile powerhouse.

Why do device makers need to innovate in software as well as hardware in the current market? How does this play into the coming deluge of connected devices? You won’t want to miss McKinney’s keynote on the current “perfect storm” of innovation. McKinney will share developments now underway at his own organization, including HP’s vision for next-generation connected devices, and how to tap the promise of the cloud.

Early-bird tickets for MobileBeat are available for just four more days. Grab them here before they expire May 31.

Phil McKinney, VP and CTO, HP Personal Systems Group

McKinney is responsible for long-range strategic planning and research and development for the company’s PC product lines, including displays, mobile devices, notebooks, desktops and workstations.

A leading authority on innovation and its impact on business, the economy and culture, McKinney speaks to worldwide audiences at conferences and through his blog (www.philmckinney.com) and weekly podcast (www.killerinnovations.com). Dubbed “chief seer” by the The San Jose Mercury News, McKinney is a contributing columnist for Forbes, writes the column “The Objective” for Forbes.com, and has been quoted in publications including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, BusinessWeek, Financial Times, Fortune and others.

We also want to thank the mobile industry leaders that are supporting MobilBeat2010, including GetJar and Placecast as Gold Sponsors, AdMob and Open Market as Silver Sponsors, and Nexage and Offerpal as Event Sponsors.

In addition, we’re proud to partner with GetJar, the world’s second largest app store, to present “The Gettie Awards 2010,” a competition for talented mobile application developers. The winners of the awards will be announced at a ceremony to take place on the evening of July 12, immediately following the first day of MobileBeat. The Getties ceremony will include dinner, entertainment and the awards announcements themselves. Submission guidelines and event information can be found here. To purchase tickets to the Getties, click here.

Don’t miss MobileBeat 2010, VentureBeat’s conference on the future of mobile. The theme: “The year of the superphone and who will profit.” Now expanded to two days, MobileBeat 2010 will take place on July 12-13 at The Palace Hotel in San Francisco. Early-bird pricing is available until May 31. For complete conference details, or to apply for the MobileBeat Startup Competition, click here.