VentureBeat

Forget the Web 2.0 bubble, which is in the process of bursting.

Start worrying about the private equity bubble instead.

Our capitalist system has a habit of swinging between fear and greed (see Stu Phillips’ column today), and right now we’re seeing it lean toward greed • at least in private equity. Wealth has accrued, and investors — many of them public pension plans — are searching for places to put their excess capital. So they’re parking it with the huge private equity firms and hedge funds promising to put large dollars to work profitably. PE firms firms raised a whopping $198 billion in 2006, a record, and almost five times the amount raised in 2004. And they pumped $725.3 billion into companies, to take public companies private, and buying divisions from public companies that are trying to restructure. That’s another record, more than twice the level in 2004. The trend is expected to continue this year. One firm, Apollo Management, alone participated in $37 billion of transactions in just three days

Things are getting out of control. With PE firms buying up all these companies, they will need to sell or take those companies public again, in order to cash out of them. But no one knows how they will do that. If you try to sell these companies on the public market at the same time, the resulting downward pressure will kill the stock market (Stu Phillips says firms will have to hold their stakes, thus lowering returns, and causing a shakeout). Meantime, the excess cash is pushing up stock values artificially, because if a company doesn’t like its stock price, it knows it can get a premium price by selling to a private equity investor. Alternatively, if a company’s stock price dips too low, it becomes an acquisition target. So, of course the market has gone up! The Dow is at record highs.

We recently corresponded with Roger McNamee (pictured below), who two years ago raised a technology-focused private equity firm, Elevation Partners. He tells VentureBeat, in an email:

Private equity has been a turbocharger for the market. Every time private equity takes a company private, they pay a big premium and investors mark up the rest of group in the hope that another PE firm will come along. This has forced private equity to pay ever higher prices for the deals they do. As long as rates remain low and the economy is strong, private equity can pay up.

That’s the problem. Most economists say 2007 is likely to herald an economic slowdown. If it slows too much, we could be in for a choppy ride. It takes a long time to unload stock, even in the best of markets. McNamee helped buy disk drive maker Seagate in 2000 while he was at Silver Lake Partners. Though Seagate’s value rose within a year or two, and is now near an all-time high — creating handsome profits for Silver Lake on paper — the firm has been unable to sell Seagate shares very quickly. It still owns a large portion of Seagate shares — six years later. And that’s a near-ideal case. Continues McNamee:

For the past couple of years, private equity has been a safety net under the public market. Stocks go down less than you would expect on bad news because private equity is there….So many companies went private in such a short period of time, that you have to wonder what happens in three years when they all want to go public again. What happens if the market says no?

Another example is the purchase of Warner Music Group for $1.25 billion in 2003, by a group of investors led by Thomas H. Lee Partners. Within two years, Warner Music made dividend and other payments to those investors of $1.43 billion, in other words paying off the Thomas Lee and other investors the entire cost of the acquisition. Like Seagate, the investment represents a fortuitous case. However, even in these best of conditions, Thomas Lee has been unable to knock it all home with a sale. It is stuck holding to the company, with a declining stock price. Warner can’t merge with EMI, as originally envisioned, because European anti-trust regulators have said no.

The bubble might continue to grow for a while, because there’s so much cash still looking for a place to go. But its time for investors — and here we mean state employees and others whose pension fund money is being pumped into these PE funds — to start asking questions. It’d be too bad if joe public investor is left holding the bag again, just like in 2000.

This year has become the “show-me” year. Internet start-ups showing no traction are getting shut down, or trimmed — abandoned by once wide-eyed investors.

The Web 2.0 bubble is bursting, but VentureBeat agrees with others that this is more like an “oozing.” New, innovative companies will continue to get funding from VCs, but with more caution. Investments amounts in Web 2.0, while booming, are so far nowhere near the absurd levels seen during the 1999-2000 period (see the Hornik-Dagres debate about this here), so the wreckage won’t cause as much pain. Back in 2000, trillions of dollars of market value were lost, because the entire U.S. economy had gotten sucked up into it. This time, not so.

Still, some pain there is.

Peerflix, the DVD-swapping company, is the latest company to lay off employees, VentureBeat has learned. The Menlo Park, Calif. company has shut its Canadian office, cutting an undisclosed number of workers, founder Billy McNair confirmed. We heard the company may have cut a quarter of its workfroce, but McNair wouldn’t provide any details. These appear to be the first layoffs hitting the “swapping platform” sector. See our piece last year about Peerflix, where McNair’s optimism stands in stark contrast to today. This company’s business model has been controversial from the start, as you’ll see from the comments.

In other developments:

FilmLoop close to death — FilmLoop, of Palo Alto, Calif., has reportedly laid off most of its staff of 30 employees after failing to find a buyer. The company raised $7 million in venture capital just eight months ago, from ComVentures. Co-founder Prescott Lee and a few others remain. FilmLoop let users create photo slide shows on websites, something that several other players let you do — from Slide, to Rockyou and Photobucket. Note our skepticism back when it raised its cash. It was very late to the game.

Jobster confirms layoffs — Rumors began last year. Jobster confirms 60 people, or 41 percent of its worforce, have been cut (its entire sales and support staff).

…meanwhile, consolidation in social networking continues — The German Facebook clone, StudiVZ has been sold for a reported 85 million Euros (less than the earlier reports suggested), to Holtzbrick Verlag, a German publishing giant that had invested earlier in StudiVZ.

…and the new ideas don’t seem that compelling — Decentral.tv, the San Rafael, Calif. start-up raised $2.3 million several months ago to launch “interactive broadcast broadband communities,” which we called vague at the time, but said we’d wait to see. Now it is apparently launching Kyte.tv, which offers video channels you can watch online or on mobile phones. We could be wrong (we’re relying on other accounts), but it doesn’t seem to push things forward. This follows plans by Old Media folks to launch Next New Networks, the latest niche video company — having raised $8 million — with nothing yet to show. Are they getting religion too late, or can they leverage their network to launch something compelling anyway? Time will tell. But companies that raise cash first, before launching and getting users, are rarely successes — though there are exceptions.

Similar thoughts, too for Twistage, based in San Francisco and New York, yet another start-up offering companies a way to use video on their own sites. It has raised under $1 million in angel funding, and moved into the Looksmart building in SF, reports Liz Gannes. Backers are Computer Associates chairman Lewis Ranieri and Jerry Colonna, formerly of Flatiron Partners. Several other companies are doing this, including Brightcove, Reality Digital (see our post here), vSocial and GridNetworks. On the hopeful side, thousands of companies will want to incorporate video into their sites in sophisticated ways, but on the downside, the technology is quickly becoming a commodity.

Othes putting off VC plans — Some companies are giving up looking for cash, in part because many VCs are getting skeptical. One very well known Web 2.0 investor tells VentureBeat he’s made his last Web 2.0 investment, though he didn’t want his name disclosed. One valley-based company Mojeo, originally told VentureBeat it would look to raise VC money to bolster its service to let people find out more local information on their mobile phones — by sharing their location with companies Yahoo, Google and Upcoming. Co-founder Mike Prince told VentureBeat that he and co-founder Dave Sutter have instead returned their focus to their day jobs, and passing on getting cash for now — though will continue to push Mojeo forward.