VentureBeat

The clean-technology event VentureBeat is co-hosting with SF Green is coming up on Monday (it starts at 5pm for networking at 111 Minna Gallery in San Francisco; program content starts at 6pm).

We’ve added three companies onto the roster of exhibitors, which already included Tesla Motors and Kleiner Perkins managing partner Ray Lane. Ticket sales for the event are still open here, while our previous post includes full details on the event’s background. The purpose is to bring clean-tech entrepreneurs, investors and other interested parties together.

First up, we’ll have Akeena Solar showing up with one of their new Andalay solar panels, which they’re calling the lego blocks of the solar world — just snap them together on a rooftop. (Unlike legos, you’ll still want to have a professional installer on hand.) Second, we’ll have a pair of Vectrix electric scooters on hand from a local dealership. With a top speed of 62mph, top range of 55 miles and 0-50mph acceleration in 6.8 seconds, it’s one of the few two-wheeled electric vehicles that could get you to work reliably every day.

Finally, we’ve got Ponoko, an “online personal factory” startup. Ponoko takes designs from its users and creates them in the physical world with laser cutting machines. Although the company is based in New Zealand, it’s establishing an outpost in San Francisco. Its eventual ambition is to spread across the map, setting up local, on-demand shops close to where they’re needed, and thus saving on transportation and manufacturing waste. I got together with Ponoko’s Dave ten Have today to talk about the concept, and that’s what the audio post and pictures below are about.

A puzzle board made with Ponoko’s laser cutting machines:

The plastic parts in this device are made by Ponoko, the remainder assembled by the designer:

Set to be officially unveiled on Tuesday to coincide with Earth Day, Sungevity, a Berkeley, Calif., based solar installer, aims to make the experience of configuring and ordering solar panels as easy as the click of a mouse — quite literally. Enter your home address on its website, and Sungevity’s satellite-imaging software (from Microsoft’s Visual Earth) takes you to a zoomed-in map of your house. It then helps you calculate your roof’s dimensions (its pitch, azimuth and available area) and pick the appropriately-sized arrays. It uses its own proprietary algorithm to do so.

It even shows you what the installation will look like and, after you submit your energy bills, how much electricity you will be able to draw from the array — and how much you’ll save. The website will e-mail you a quote within 24 hours of submitting your address and bills. Sadly, because Sungevity currently only serves the greater San Francisco area, those that live in the Los Angeles area (like me) will have to wait a little while longer. Also, the database seems to have some trouble honing in on homes with unique architectural designs or roof shapes — not to mention homes in leafy neighborhoods.

When purchasing an array, you can choose to either pay up front or as you go; ordering it requires an industry standard $1,000 deposit. After you place the order, an installation crew is sent to your home with one of five pre-packaged solar arrays. To facilitate the installation, Sungevity uses the satellite images to figure out your neighborhood’s local building and permit requirements, all at no cost.

Sungevity warranties the installations for 10 years and the arrays’ inverters and panels, easily the most expensive components, for 10 and 25 years, respectively. The company boasts that it will be able to offer its fully-installed systems for up to 10% less than its competitors, because its installers only need to make one visit. An array for a typically four-bedroom home will go for about $21,000.

The company, headed by former Greenpeace activist Danny Kennedy, raised $2.5 million from Solon Solar Investments, a German solar power plant builder, actress Cate Blanchett and several other undisclosed investors last December.

To keep its labor costs low, Sungevity plans on working with local unions to train electricians and contractors instead of investing in its own team of skilled green-collar workers. Its online model will immediately be put to the test as it enters an already crowded field: Its main competitors, Bay Area-based SolarCity and Sun Run, are aggressively promoting lower cost alternatives and new leasing plans to grab a larger market share. Much like Sun Run, Sungevity is hoping to muscle in on the market by pushing the “hybrid home” — enticing consumers to purchase cheaper, smaller arrays that will only cover a portion of their homes’ electricity use.

The big challenge will be speeding up the installation process and reducing costs; rival Akeena Solar has already taken a step in that direction, unveiling its affordable, ready-to-install solar panel, Andalay. Sungevity plans on expanding to other states soon though it hasn’t decided whether it will subcontract solar installers or just sell its services to other installers.

While the market for silicon solar panels appears to be growing at a healthy clip, several factors could either retard or speed its development. A worldwide silicon shortage, government investment credits, energy prices and the existing financing and installation models for solar panels are all in flux. But recent developments in all of those sectors suggest a positive outlook for the sector.

First up, Trina Solar’s recent decision to cancel its $1b silicon plant is widely seen as a promising sign that the polysilicon shortage may be coming to an end — or, at least, that companies are reassessing their capacity given the difficulty of producing silicon. The company had begun planning the facility in late 2007, when a silicon squeeze threatened to shut off production completely for any company unlucky enough to not have a set supply contract.

Second, the Senate’s recent approval of the Clean Energy Tax Stimulus Act of 2008, which will provide an additional $20 billion to fund renewable energy projects, could, if ratified by both the House and president, encourage further investment. The House passed its own standalone bill, H.R. 5351, to renew an existing tax credit for renewable energy sources set to expire at the end of this year; the bill had previously been struck down twice by the president and faced resistance within the Senate, because it pulled investment credits away from oil companies.

Supporters in the Senate are applying pressure toward ratification of the new bill, but the lack of a clear funding source for the credits puts it at risk both before the House. However, if passed, the measure will give solar manufacturers and installers a 30% investment tax credit and provide up to $500 to consumers looking to invest in energy-efficient products for their homes.

While silicon supply and government policy are both forward-looking, the current trend of rising fossil fuel prices and shifting consumer sentiment have meant that sales are still brisk for many companies — a momentum manufacturers and installers are hoping to maintain as they hire new workers and increase production. Akeena Solar, which just announced the Andalay, a cheaper, ready-to-install solar panel, is considering moving into new U.S. markets — citing “favorable” electricity rates and “large and sustainable incentives for solar power.” The company just signed a deal with Kyocera, the Japanese electronics manufacturer, to begin manufacturing the Andalay panels.

Another installer, Borrego Solar, which specializes in solar panel systems for both commercial and residential markets, is planning on expanding its operations throughout the country and on raising capital for the first time in the company’s history. Even companies like Standard Renewable Energy, which sell their renewable energy products, including solar cells, in supposedly environmentally “unfriendly” states, have been growing at a fast clip.

New incentive and loan programs, such as PSE&G Solar Loan Program and SolarCity’s SolarLease aim to convince homeowners who don’t want to lay down an intimidating lump sum to get solar panels. For home developers, economies of scale and growing consumer interest in “green” features mean they will also find more merit in installing panels on new projects.

Solar firms are also hoping that consumers, armed with their shiny rebate checks, will opt to purchase panels to save on energy costs over the long run. Even if consumer sentiment continues to sour at home, many companies are hoping that business in foreign markets will help sustain their growth (and bottom lines).

Despite the upbeat mood in the clean energy sector, worries about the credit crunch and regulatory uncertainty on Wall Street have somewhat dampened private equity and venture capital investment. As we noted yesterday, fewer venture capital firms raised money this past quarter than at any time during the last two years; a report from New Energy Finance, a London-based firm that tracks investments in cleantech, corroborated the downbeat trend, finding that VC and private equity investments fell to $2.4b in the first quarter, from $3.7b last year.

The continued credit grind could yet start digging into solar installers’ bottom lines if investment continues to drop; government-coordinated initiatives such as the $875m Southern California Edison program to blanket the roofs of unused commercial rooftops with solar panels — enough to generate 250 MW, which could power 162,000 homes — in addition to other rebates, could help offset any such losses. Even pessimists expect growth in the solar sector to continue in 2008, albeit at a slower rate.

Updated
An ambitious plan to double the rebate amount for residential solar panel installation in San Francisco, to $6,000 from $3,000, looks a little less certain to pass today with a surprise resolution introduced by San Francisco supervisor Jake McGoldrick to freeze the $3 million necessary for the program.

The idea behind the subsidy, called the Solar Incentive Rebate Program, is to increase solar in San Francisco from five to 55 megawatts in about 10 years time, meanwhile creating a valuable ecosystem of distributors, installers and manufacturers in the area. To hit 55MW of energy, some 15,000 rooftops would need to have solar installed, according to the mayor’s office.

The program is significant because San Francisco is considered one of California’s most progressive cities; and California itself is considered among the nation’s most green friendly states. Experiments here are closely watched.

By the end of today, though, the plan for subsidies may be off — at least until the June ballot, when San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom will likely re-introduce it for a vote. However, the SIRP pales in comparison to another project announced today by Southern California Edison.

The SCE plan calls for an $875 million direct investment into blanketing solar panels atop unused commercial rooftops in three counties in the Los Angeles area, enough to generate 250 megawatts and power 162,000 homes. Installation will begin immediately, and take around five years, at the rate of one megawatt installed per week.

Why are these Southern California programs important? For starters, they tie solar into the existing grid, rather than throwing money at pie-in-the-sky projects out in the desert. And in southern counties like Riverside, known as a world center for shipping, there are plenty of warehouse rooftops to go around.

The Southern California programs also provide a local market for solar, and costs will come down over time as that market grows.

If San Francisco’s program is delayed or cancelled, it could put a dent in the outlook of companies that were counting on it, as well as making them wary of committing resources in the future. “Akeena Solar, SolarCity, Occidental Power — all of us have put marketing dollars into this, and hired and trained people to get ready,” the founder of Akeena, Barry Cinnamon, told me. “You can just imagine what would happen if the rug gets pulled out from under us. Those things aren’t cheap.”

It’s reminiscent of the much larger Federal renewable tax credit, which is also looking endangered. When political wrangling gets involved in credits that businesses have counted on to make their bottom line, it has a long-lasting effect, even if the credits are quickly renewed.

Update: Looks like the credit is really off for the moment, with the next chance for it to hit the ballot in November. However, the board is still working on the issue. (photo credit: MumbleyJoe, flickr)