“SimulTV puts the social in TV – literally – by merging the second screen with the first,” the company says.

The second screen is the biggest phenomena in traditional media, supposedly. Forrester says that 85 percent of tablet owners in the U.S. check social media while watching TV. It’s such a big phenomenon that TV Guide rolled out an app to see what’s playing, watch whatever’s on, and also tweet, post, and blog about it. And that Apple is rumored to be releasing a mini-TV tablet to enable an iOS-style second-screen experience.

Of course, when I go to watch TV, I go to chill, or to immerse myself in a story … not to tweet about it or share. But I am, admittedly, not 20 anymore.

For those who want to stay socially connected while watching the big game or the last episode of can’t-miss-TV, SimulTV’s solution is to combine both screens, right on the web. So your football game, Twitter conversations, Facebook messages, online search, and text and voice chat with others on SimulTV who are watching the same thing as you.

“If you’re using two screens, you have to take your eyes off the football game or reality show you’re watching and go to your second screen when you want to complain about a penalty or celebrate with your friends when your favorite contestant wins the game,” Steve Turner, founder and president of SimulTV, said in a statement. “That means you are either watching or interacting, but not doing both.”

There’s something to what he’s saying.

I tried the service myself, and besides the fact that it’s Flash-based — at least the code that asks for control of your microphone and webcam in order to participate in on-site chat — and fairly processor-intensive, it seems useful and a better solution than a standard two-device second-screen setup.

Currently, there are only a few channels, but by this summer, SimulTV promises to have more than 100 channels, including ”top channels” from Latin America, China, Japan and Europe, plus 5,000 video-on-demand titles. The service is HD-quality, with picture-in-picture for the truly ADHD social TV aficionados, and according to the company, takes only half the bandwidth of typically required.

Most importantly, however, SimulTV is a service that — depending on the channels the company actually brings on this summer — allows you to cut the cord and simply use your computer or tablet to watch TV.

The service will be free initially, and eventually will cost between $5 and $20.

Image credit: John Koetsier

But a new report from Forrester says that Google’s going to win both battles.

“The database of affinity is Facebook’s birthright,” Forrester analyst Nate Elliott says. “And it’s going to blow it.

Google has owned intent with its AdWords product because intent is often most visibly demonstrated via a search. You’re looking for a new TV, you search for “flatscreen TV,” Google matches ads against your query. Affinity is fuzzier: you like Samsung, so you might be biased toward buying a Samsung TV.

Forrester says the database of affinity that Facebook and others are building is the holy grail of marketing, but adds, shockingly, that Facebook is not going to win.

“While it’s Facebook’s birthright to win the race for monetizing the database of affinity — after all it practically owns the trademark on ‘liking’ something — ultimately it will be Google that reaches the finish line first,” according to Elliot.

How?

You need three things to turn affinity data into that holy grail, Elliot says. Those three things are lots of affinity data from many varied sources, the capability to bring meaning to that data through intensive analysis, and a variety of brand ad units from markets to monetize that data and that meaning. According to Elliot, Google is able to beat Facebook on all three of those criteria.

Source: Forrester

Affinity data: Facebook vs Google

Even affinity data — the kind of data that Facebook’s 83 billion likes is supposed to be able to deliver more than any other social network or search company.

“While Facebook has more affinity data than anyone else, Google’s got a lot more of this data than you think it does — and Google’s affinity data covers a much broader range of social actions,” Elliot writes, citing 800 million YouTube visitors and 500 million Gmail users … and that Google “cheats” because it doesn’t just have access to data from its own sites and services but also from its search index, which “includes almost every review posted on any site online; the contents of billions of blog posts; and nearly everything posted on Twitter.”

In addition, the Forrester report says Google is both better at bringing meaning to data — better at “big data” analysis — and has more experience with and access to advertisers and multiple types of ad units, including video-based preroll ads on YouTube.

Building the database of affinity will help advertisers reduce wasted ad dollars by better targeting their best potential customers. It’ll also reward or punish social networks, search engines, and online sites’ ad revenues based on a better understanding of who is actually visiting, and what they’re actually doing.

Elliot sees this database of affinity emerging in four stages:

1. Simple affinity:
   Facebook likes, Twitter accounts a user follows.
2. Big affinity:
   Multiple merged datasets including purchase history.
3. Smart affinity:
   Even more data, but now with real-time dynamic analysis to target ads down to the individual.
4. Ubiquitous affinity:
   Applying online data to offline ads.

As that progression occurs, Forrester sees Facebook’s privacy issues going away and Google buying companies like CBS and MGM … and TV advertising starting to grow again as online affinity data informs offline ad buys.

“When Facebook shares too much with the public, it merely annoys people,” the report says. “But when Facebook shares with marketers, it creates value for those marketers — and users never even notice.”

photo credit: Thomas Hawk via photopin cc

July 9-10, 2013
San Francisco, CA

Early Bird Tickets on Sale

You can sum up Forrester’s prognostications on 2013 mobile trends in three little words: This changes everything.

Well, duh.

Mobile phones are already well on their way to replacing cameras, cash, maps, remote controls, handheld gaming systems, boarding passes, tickets, cash registers, calculators, notepads, and much more. And they’re becoming globally ubiquitous: 1.6 billion phones were shipped last year; and by the end of this year, 1.4 billion smartphones will be in use.

So the question is not so much what smartphones can do, it’s what can’t they do. And the strategic imperative for organizations is to understand how they are going to meet the challenge of that change.

A week after sharing its vision of the top 15 emerging technologies, Forrester shared its view of the near future of mobile in analyst Thomas Husson’s report, released today.

Here are the top 10 implications for mobile, according to Husson:

Mobile becomes a strategic priority

1. Marketers will realize that mobile requires a total shift in marketing approach.
   This is one of the reasons Google baked mobile into AdWords by default, one of the biggest changes in AdWords in five years.
2. Tablets will be the biggest short-term disruptors.
   Advertisers like marketing on iPhones and Android smartphones, but iPad ads command the biggest premium.
3. Mobile platforms will catalyze next-generation connected experiences.
   We’ll see more technologies like fitness trackers that know what you’re doing without you having to tell them, or a smartphone app that lets you control your home from Tokyo.
4. Smart apps powered by big data and sophisticated analytics will help us complete tasks.
   Think a Siri from Apple that is more than just a cute add-on and that actually becomes a valuable personal assistant.
5. Mobile will play a leading role in engaging consumers in emerging markets.
   75 percent of all new phones are being sold in Asia and Africa. That might change something …

Mobile investments must rise

1. Mobile will require more formal organization, processes, governance.
   BYOD rocks, but IT is getting fed up of supporting what it cannot manage.
2. Leading marketers will take back ownership of mobile from agencies and vendors.
   You can’t outsource core, and mobile is becoming core. So you’ve got to learn from the best and bring at least some expertise in-house.
3. The role of mobile marketing manager will emerge.
   If Google needs a mobile marketing manager, why don’t you?
4. Finding the right strategic mix of staff will rise in importance.
   Even more than in other areas, you need the right blend of business, marketing, design, and technology expertise to succeed in mobile.
5. Spending will increase to enable mobile services.
   Mobile marketing has been a bit of a bargain, but as it’s become core, that’s changing. Technology and staffing costs are going up.

Husson will be discussing these trends in a free webinar on February 18 at 2PM UK time, 9AM New York time, and 6AM (ugh) San Francisco time.

photo credit: Rev Dan Catt via photopin cc

But let’s face it: That train is in the station. What’s next?

Also see: Forrester’s top 10 mobile trends for 2013

Analyst Bryan Hopkins gave us a peek into what Forrester thinks is next, and much of it builds on those four horseman of disruptive change. “We went a level deeper in our research by examining how today’s hot technolog[ies] create platforms for future disruption,” he wrote this morning in a blog post.

Here they are, in four groups:

End user computing technologies

1. Next-generation devices and UIs
   New sensors and new user interfaces. Think Leap Motion
2. Advanced collaboration and communication
   Think social inside, like Yammer or other social-inside-the-enterprise solutions
3. Systems of engagement
   Real-time data, in everyone’s hands. Think Roambi

Sensors and remote computing technologies

1. Smart products
   Thing that can sense, react, and communicate. Think operating system for places and buildings
2. In-location positioning
   GPS and in-building location sensors
3. Machine-to-machine networks
   Background intelligence on people and things. Think ReelyActive

Process data management technologies

1. Smart process applications and semantics
   Real business processes are a lot messier than your flow charts. Smart process apps know that.
2. Advanced analytics
   Smarter, more predictive data. Think Cloudera’s Impala tool for Hadoop
3. Pervasive BI
   People need business intelligence that comes every hour, not at the end of the month
4. Process and data cloud services
   Scalable, burstable, and cheap computing capability. PaaS, BaaS, etc. 

Infrastructure and application platforms

1. Big data platforms
   Infrastructure to handle big data and high speed … and use all that data you’ve been uselessly storing
2. Breakthrough storage and compute
   Yes, hardware may still be necessary, even if you’re never going to be like Google
3. Software-defined infrastructure
   Software that dynamically routes your networking and data center capabilities
4. Cloud application frameworks
   Technologies for deploying and running distributed apps in the cloud, like, perhaps, a multi-continent-spanning database
5. New identity and trust models
   New federated trust and identity models for a changing world of jobs and careers … and maybe even killing all usernames and passwords

An interesting thought for executives:

If you want a good look at the future of end user computing technologies and sensor and remote computing devices, check winning Kickstarter and IndieGoGo campaigns in the technology and gadget categories. And for a picture of the future for the last two groups above, process data management and infrastructure and application platforms, look at Google and Facebook.

photo credit: ginnerobot via photopin cc