July 9-10, 2013
San Francisco, CA

Early Bird Tickets on Sale

By the end of this current year, 1.4 billion smartphones will be in use: 798 million of them will run Android, 294 million will run Apple’s iOS, and 45 million will run Windows Phone, according to a new study by ABI Research.

The ABI study factors in an annual smartphone growth rate of 44 percent for 2013, which is just ever-so-slightly down from 2012′s 45 percent but is still a torrid pace. ABI also predicts that 20 million BlackBerry 10 phones will be in active use at year-end.

The result of that growth — and a push for share by Windows Phone and BlackBerry 10 — is a global customer market share of 57 percent for Android, 21 percent of iOS, and 3 percent for Windows Phone. Which sounds big for Android, but is actually significantly down from its third-quarter 2012 performance, in which Android captured almost 70 percent global market share.

It’s also a significant divergence in the global numbers from U.S-specific sales, which show Apple leading the market with over 50 percent share in the last quarter thanks largely to both new users and older models of iPhones.

But perhaps the most startling prediction? The bit players will start to become serious contenders again, ABI says.

“2013 should be seen as relative success for both Microsoft and BlackBerry,” analyst Aapo Markkanen said in a statement. “For the end of the year, we expect there to be 45 million Windows Phone handsets in use, with BlackBerry 10 holding an installed base of close to 20 million. Microsoft will also have 5.5 million Windows-powered tablets to show for it.”

For tablets, Markkanen is predicting continued hyper-growth: 125 percent, which will result in 268 million tablets in use. Sixty-two percent will iOS, he says, and 28 percent will run Android.

Image credit: Etsy

This year, analysts have a consensus estimate of $35.8 billion. Apple has only issued guidance for $34 billion.

The big question — which Apple CEO Tim Cook seemingly avoided intentionally at the company’s recent big product unveiling — is how many iPhone 5s did Apple sell. But by telling the world that Apple had sold over 100 million iPads, Cook revealed iPad sales numbers of perhaps 15 million in the last quarter — less than expectations that ranged as high as 18 million.

So the iPhone numbers will determine whether or not Apple meets or exceeds its numbers.

This earnings announcement will be an important one for Apple. It’s stock has risen about 50 percent this year, but it has slumped somewhat lately as competition in the pivotal smartphone and tablet segments continues to heat up … and as the iPad mini came out more expensive than anticipated.

Source: Google Finance

Apple stock over the last three months versus the NASDAQ

When earnings were announced for this quarter last year, Apple slumped 6 percent when the results were perceived as a miss.

Here’s what Apple analyst Gene Munster and his firm, Piper Jaffray, expect:

Earnings will be released at about 4 p.m. EST, only about an hour from now.

photo credit: herval via photopin cc

Source: Google Finance

Apple shares from 2000 to today

CNet credits Apple for NASDAQ’s rise, among other companies, which makes a lot of sense. Apple has gone from a market capitalization of under $25 billion to a massive and world-leading $638 billion value.

But it’s not only Apple that is killing it, especially this year.

This week Fortune released its list of top 100 fastest-growing companies, and a plenty of tech exposure is in the list. Apple is there — which is frankly amazing, because it’s easier to move the dial on huge growth with a small company than with a multi-billion-dollar giant — but so is Baidu, the massive Chinese search engine.

NetApp, VMware, Rackspace, and Netgear are other well-known tech companies on the list. 3D printing company 3D systems is also there, with many other smaller tech companies. In fact, counting those small companies, at least 25 of the top 100 fastest growing companies in America are technology companies.

And technology, as a business sector, is growing the second-fastest of any industry, with almost 31 percent growth in the past 12 months.

Source: Fortune

Growth of the technology industry this past year

By contrast, the energy sector is only up 6.56 percent, education is down 3.65 percent, and mining is tanking at -30 percent.

Google is trending up, too, as CNet mentioned, with a stock price that just recently topped the $700 mark for the first time since 2007. Search revenue is strong — growing 21 percent this past quarter — and Android continues to tear up the mobile charts, with all the implications that has for future monetization possibilities.

The only downer, perhaps, is Facebook, with stock that has been hammered hard and is now at about $19, close to 50 percent down from its IPO. But that story is still in the first chapter.

A rising tide floats all boats, perhaps, and Apple — with other tech company’s assistance – is helping the index soar.

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July 9-10, 2013
San Francisco, CA

Early Bird Tickets on Sale

China will account for 26.5 percent of all smartphones sales in 2012, compared to 17.8 percent for the USA, according to a new study released today by the IDC.

That compares to last year’s numbers of 21.3 percent for the U.S and 18.3 percent for China. Other major markets for smartphones include the U.K., India, and Brazil, with 5.3 percent, 2.2 percent, and 1.8 percent of the global market in 2011, respectively. Of those countries, India and Brazil will continue to increase their growth rate in 2012, but the U.K.’s growth rate will slow.

Source: IDC

Global smartphone shipments, 2011-2016

The other 50 percent of the global market is spread among a conglomeration of other countries.

This is not shocking news — that’s what a growth rate of 26 percent for China and only 11.6 percent for the U.S. will do. The shift in market leadership for smartphones is natural outflow of four factors: Android phones getting cheaper, high smartphone market penetration in America, a growing Chinese middle class, and China’s immense population.

Significantly, most of the growth is going to Android phones, not Apple iPhones.

The Chinese may love iPhones, but the pricy status symbol is out of reach for many who are not willing to sell a kidney to acquire the latest shiny Cupertino toy. Android phones in the sub-$100 category are driving huge adoption in China, according to the IDC.

The same factor will also boost Android sales in developing markets such as Brazil, India, and Russia, which isn’t even on the chart today.

Smartphone shipments will continue to increase in the U.S., U.K., and other early market leading countries, but the growth rate is shifting to emerging markets. Within large countries such as China and India, penetration of smartphones is now starting to take off in second-tier cities, according to IDC analyst James Yan.

“After going through a period of sustained high growth, top-tier cities are likely to see decelerating smartphone growth rates,” Yan said. “In contrast, secondary cities are expected to experience accelerated smartphone growth, with strong demand for low-cost models as well as high-end models, which are desired as status symbols.”

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July 9-10, 2013
San Francisco, CA

Early Bird Tickets on Sale

With online bulletin-board Craigslist seemingly ignoring mobile entirely, the race is on for someone to offer the first great mobile marketplace. One contender is Grabio, which initially started out as a consumer to consumer marketplace, but is now seeking out local businesses to flesh out its ecosystem.

Chicago-based Grabio launched version 3.0 of its app on the  iTunes Store yesterday, which now offers inventory from local businesses, user profiles, a more social commerce-network, and the ability to make payments from right within the app.

“From the beginning we had the concept that we wanted to make classifieds more social and transparent,” Grabio CEO Horatiu Boeriu said in an interview with VentureBeat. “We’re trying to fix what’s wrong with Craigslist, and not just trying to bring Craigslist to mobile.”

The free Grabio app works as you’d expect for a mobile marketplace. Once you open it up, you can see people and businesses that are selling things around you and list your own item for sale. With the new app, you can create a profile and follow other users, which helps to socialize the shopping experience.

Also new in Grabio 3.0 is an intriguing Wishlist feature, which allows Grabio to alert you when you’re near someone selling a specific item you’re looking for. Unlike Highlight and Foursquare’s Radar feature, Grabio doesn’t run location services in the background for the Wishlist, which saves precious battery life. Instead, Boeriu tells me that the company implemented an Apple API that tracks your location via cell tower. It’s not nearly as accurate as GPS, but the fact that it doesn’t kill your battery and can run when Grabio is completely closed seems like a worthy compromise.

Compared to Zaarly, Grabio’s well-funded competitor that caters mostly to buyers, Boeriu tells me that his app is focused on both buyers and sellers. The company has already formed partnerships with some small and medium-sized businesses to include their inventory in the Grabio app, but it’s actively seeking out more.

“Our value proposition to a business is simple: we bring foot traffic to your brick-and-mortar store at no cost,” Boeriu said in an email.

While Craigslist isn’t much of a threat to Grabio on the mobile front, other apps are hoping to seize the market. The shopping comparison app ShopSavvy, for example, just recently announced its mobile marketplace, Savvylistings. But with a slick design and fast iteration (the first Grabio app launched in August), Boeriu believes his small company can take on bigger and better-funded competitors.

So far, Grabio has $4.6 million worth of postings on its marketplace (though the company isn’t yet talking total users or other metrics). The company is working on Android and HTML5 web apps, the latter of which will work across any mobile device.

Grabio has been fully bootstrapped so far, but Boeriu tells me the company is now talking with angel investors and VCs about raising its first round.

July 9-10, 2013
San Francisco, CA

Early Bird Tickets on Sale

Apple is expected to release the latest and greatest iPad  today. Apple has a lot riding on this device, because while the iPad still wears the pants in the tablet family, Android devices are growing up fast.

The chart above, compiled by Statista from a variety of sources, shows the amount of tablets shipped in each calendar quarter, and the iPad has yet to be beat. While not the only tablet in existence when it launched in April 2010, it quickly rocketed above the rest, thanks in part to Apple’s obessive, consumer-conscious chief executive Steve Jobs, who helped ensure that the tablet would be dead-simple to use and would be paired with a rich ecosystem of content and apps. Apple shipped 3.5 million tablets in its first quarter and has continued to increase these shipments, save for the first quarter of 2011.

Its main competitors, mainly Android-based tablets, have been gaining on it. It seems, however, that whenever the iPad dips, so does the rest of the tablet market. This may be because of overall market fluctuations, as opposed to Apple’s influence.

In the last quarter of 2011, (Apple fiscal Q1 2012), iPad sales rose 111 percent to 15.43 million units, with all other tablets selling 11.63 million. In 2011 iPad users made up 83 percent of the U.S. tablet market, according to analyst firm eMarketer. The firm does predict that Apple’s hold on the market will diminish as more competitors emerge. Indeed, iOS popularity has lost significant market share already. When the iPad first came out in the second quarter of 2010, it owned 94.3 percent market. Most recently, iOS sits at 57.6 percent.

In total, Apple has already sold 55 million iPads around the world.

Infographic via Statista

VentureBeat is holding its second annual Mobile Summit this April 2-3 in Sausalito, Calif. The invitation-only event will debate the five key business and technology challenges facing the mobile industry today, and participants — 180 mobile executives, investors, and policymakers — will develop concrete, actionable solutions that will shape the future of the mobile industry. You can find out more at our Mobile Summit site.

At the end of trading Monday, the Nasdaq was down nearly 7 percent for the day, after U.S. debt rating was downgraded to AA+ by Standard & Poor’s at the end of last week.

At the end of trading, many enterprise-focused stocks had dropped sharply, but in most cases not quite as badly as the broader market, including Oracle (-7.94% for the day), Cisco (-6.69%), Microsoft (-4.60%), IBM (-3.39%), and Google (-5.70%). Their performance suggests the business technology sector may be nearly as vulnerable to poor market conditions as the overall market.

Daniel Morgan, portfolio manager with Synovus Securities, said the market is in an “emotional” state at the moment following the downgrade of U.S. debt and last week’s revision in first quarter GDP, and that the drop of key tech stocks might be an overreaction.

“The economic recovery is not as strong as investors had initially thought,” Morgan told VentureBeat. “But when it comes to enterprise stocks, many of these companies have strong overseas growth and some have overall strong financial positions.”

Morgan spotlighted HP, Dell, and Cisco as companies that look like they could stagnate, but said we won’t be able to tell for sure until we see their third quarter performance. But he said Google and Apple, two companies that market both on the enterprise and consumer front, and are both suited to weather a recession better than most.

Andrew Bartels, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester Research, said as long as the economy grows—even slowly—then tech companies should continue to grow at twice the rate of the market itself. Bartels said companies in unsteady times are more likely to invest in technology than in personnel, which means enterprise-focused companies are in a solid position.

“Generally enterprise and tech companies have fared better in downturns,” Bartels said. “Even with slow economic growth, these types of companies will see revenues rise.”

However, Bartels notes there is a 25 to 30 percent chance the U.S. is headed back to a recession. And if the U.S. goes back down that road, we should expect tech companies to fall at the same pace as the market.

“Tech companies in the current environment can expect growth at 10 percent or higher, but if you’re back in a recession, it drops to 6 to 7 percent growth,” Bartels said.

Michael Gartenberg, a research director at Gartner, covers the interconnected consumer market and companies like Apple. He said the ripple effects of the market can affect companies in the short term, even ones with a history of strong sales.

“If we look at Apple’s sales in 2008 to 2009, it held up well even during a recession,” Gartenberg said.

What do you think about the current state of tech stocks?

Photo of a panic button by Ilovememphis.

That’s according to a new report by a new report by Lux Research examining emerging markets for solar power.

The current global poster child for solar is Germany, which added 8 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity in 2010 and accounted for half of the global solar market. At minimum demand, the entire German electricity grid consumes around 31 GW. However, Germany’s solar dominance may be starting to wane since its generous guaranteed rates for solar power are being reduced.

The other top markets globally in 2010 were Japan, China, and Italy. Italy has been booming with installations in 2010 rising to 1.9 gigawatts, up 100 percent from 2009, according to research firm iSuppli.

Overall though, the pace of installations in Europe is slowing. IHS Emerging Energy Research is projecting total new installations of 10 – 13 GW across Europe in 2010, declining to between 7 and 9 GW in 2011. The U.S.currently accounts for only 6.5% of global solar PV (photovoltaics – solar panel technology) demand, and most of that comes from California. A previous report from Lux Research predicted that China’s demand will grow strongly in the next few years as will North America’s.

Beyond those countries, Lux Research evaluated emerging markets based on the quality of the solar resource, current electricity demand and favorable regulatory environment. Countries with high levels of energy imports and low grid efficiency may also be more inclined to encourage solar installations. Based on these criteria, it identifies India as a top target for solar energy.

India has an enormous energy gap. Demand is expected to double by 2030, and 400 million people in the country have no access to electricity. 40 GW of this demand is estimated to be addressable by solar.

India also has the poorest grid infrastructure of the countries surveyed. 30 percent of all electricity is lost during distribution due to poor infrastructure and theft. This makes it suitable for smaller, distributed installations of solar, as well as utility-size projects, since they can be used to serve off-grid populations and reduce electricity losses.

India’s National Solar Mission has introduced cash grants and favorable electricity rates for solar installations. $1 billion of funding has been allocated up to 2013 to promote 1 GW of utility-scale plants, 100 MW of distributed PV installations and 200 MW of off-grid installations. Cash grants of 30 percent of install costs are available for off-grid installations less than 250 KW. India’s solar market has already started to heat up, with the country seeking 300 MW of solar bids this month alone.

Another high-potential market identified in the report is, believe it or not, the rain-soaked United Kingdom. Although the UK does not have a great solar resource, it has very attractive feed-in tariffs (premium prices for renewable energy) and a streamlined process to approval subsidies. Lux Research estimates that the UK could accommodate 20 GW at 5 percent market penetration.