Facebook debunked

[Editor's note: This is an Op-Ed piece by Kevin Barenblat, co-creator of SpotDJ]

Facebook and its developer platform f8 are the hot topic of conversation among many in Silicon Valley since its launch May 24. The site is quickly growing up, as folks 35 and older now make up almost half of the site’s new recruits. Conferences around Facebook are beginning to appear as the company talks of becoming the Social OS and rebukes buy-out offers to attempt a public offering.

Amidst the hype and confusion, myths about Facebook abound. And so it’s with that in mind we share with you many things that you probably don’t know about the development platform:

‘8 Secrets of f8′

App names are not unique: Want your own Top Friends, Video, or iLike? Make one! App names are not unique. (URL’s are, but nobody looks at those anyway.) There are two Graffiti apps, and three Fortune Cookie apps, for example.

It’s crowded: There are now over 3000 Facebook apps, and 70% of Facebook users already have apps on their page. And with over 100,000 people signed up as Facebook platform developers, expect many more apps on the way. Standing out in the crowd isn’t easy.

Initial gold rush is over: Nine of the top dozen apps are owned by Slide (4), RockYou (4), and Facebook (1). Success in the land grab has led companies like RockYou to rent their audience to others attempting to compete. For example, despite its enormous size, Yahoo had recruited only five thousand users for its Music Video app in its first month. Enter a deal with RockYou and the re-launched app grew to the second biggest music app with over 750k users in 3 weeks.

It’s not inherently viral: Many developers believe that if they launch a Facebook app they’ll quickly acquire a million users. In reality, only 42 of over 3000 apps have over 1M users, and only 150 have over 100,000 users. In the initial days following the launch of the platform, early applications took advantage of unlimited messaging policies – really no more than spamming friends – to grow quickly. Facebook quickly added restrictions to messaging that pushed those early days of explosive growth into the past. Despite additional restrictions, much of today’s app growth continues to come from integrated application invites (now limited to spamming 10 friends daily) rather than truly viral features.

NFO is the new SEO: News feeds that appear whenever a users adds or interacts with an app are one of the most important marketing channels freely available on Facebook. Many applications count on news feeds to drive growth among the users’ friends. However, activity among Facebook’s 33M+ users (half of whom log in daily) generates trillions of news feed items. To provide the best user experience, Facebook culls those down to a digestible number of feed items it thinks will be most interesting to you. The result is that less than 0.2% of possible news feed items actually show up in feeds. And because news feeds are one of the best ways to reach out to users, expect a News Feed Optimization (NFO) industry to develop just like Search Engine Optimization (SEO).

Money talks: Actually, there are ways to break the NFO game. Application Promotion Sponsored Stories, as Facebook calls their ads for applications, provide persistent impressions (a news item stays on a user’s homepage feed in prominent 3rd position for 24-48 hours). Sponsored stories don’t adhere to the 0.2% rule. In fact, Sponsored Stories are exempt from user preferences, so even users who have explicitly set preferences to not get a particular kind of news feed will get them. Companies such as Slide, RockYou, and iLike that quickly became the largest app developers differentiated themselves from the other 65 developers at launch by participating in this paid marketing program.

New API Tuesday: The f8 API updates every Tuesday with little warning to developers, and the constantly changing nature of the API can screw developers. For example, Facebook recently added a feature to their wall application that takes away much of the advantage to SuperWall. Facebook has also blocked applications, made changes to terms of use, and changed the way API calls work.

It’s fate: Why is the development platform called f8? Is f8 is an abbreviation for the 8 letters in Facebook, or reference to the ‘oo’ in the second half of the name, or maybe the infinite number of possibilities of what app developers might create? Apparently it’s none of those things, as f8 is a reference to fate, a sign of the hubris at Facebook.

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12 Comments

  1. Sherwin said:

    F8 is the name of the conference where they launched it. The platform is not called F8.

  2. roger said:

    my prediction: a year or two from now, people will look back at this facebook platform hype and realize that it was way overblown.

    open networks will prevail.

    for example: http://readr.com. maybe not the perfect product, but it’s a start.

  3. Embed said:

    Thankfully the “goldrush” is over and now developers actually have to build something great to succeed. That is a good thing in my eyes

  4. mother said:

    our jewish barenblat kevin is just jeaulous. facebook is growing by the minute and you can do nothing about it.

  5. Eric Eldon said:

    MOTHER, what does being “jewish” have to do with anything? Keep garbage statements like that off this blog.

  6. Arthur Howe said:

    The King has no clothes. I receive 2 or 3 Facebook invitations a day from people I have never heard of, and I know many people who are in the same boat. (Jason Calcanis penned a very good post about Facebook spam on his site.)

  7. Aaronontheweb (AjaxNinja) said:

    I think the Facebook hype will die down once we see some numbers on how effective advertising on Facebook actually is. SHOW US THE MONEY FACEBOOK.

  8. Vladimir said:

    Nice analysis. Facebook is still in the making as an advertising platform. A stable advertising model will eventually occur, but for now I must agree things will cool down as I expect the initial hype to slowly fade.

  9. GeeBee said:

    Most informative. I didn’t know. True=all free services commercialize. Chaos will weed out the faint of heart. Persistent innovation will be rewarded. Adapt or die. yishkoachstronghebro

  10. dave mcclure said:

    nice writeup kevin.

    however, i don’t agree the Gold Rush is over… as a parallel perspective, the Search industry wasn’t over just because a few sites got well-indexed by Yahoo and/or Alta Vista in ‘95, or by Google in ‘99.

    there will certainly be dominant players on Platform, and there will be App fatigue by users, however count on there being LOTS of large, medium, and small winners both now & well into the future.

    while invites and other tricks of the trade have been opportunistically used by early movers such as Slide, RockYou & others, those are certainly not the only methods to get attention / adoption.

    in fact, there are PLENTY of mistakes even the top players are making on how they utilize the Feed, and there’s still a lot left for everyone to learn.

    finally, i do agree with your assessment of NFO = SEO = BIG opportunity.

    the question is not whether, but when, do Facebook & other app players figure out monetization & paid / sponsored feed opportunities. in fact it’s already happening, and once that becomes a little more self-service i expect there to be tons of people jumping in.

    regardless, great piece & hope to read more from you on the subject!

    - dmc

  11. Paul Reilly at Facebump said:

    Why Viral Velocity linked to Social Graph Density.

    Fact#1: Facebook’s userbase is currently doubling every 6 months.

    Given the the physical size of the planet is fixed, this means that the density of the social graph is increasing proportionally to the size of the facebook userbase.

    Fact#2: Sound travels through fluids (gasses or liquids) at a velocity proportional to the density of the fluid

    Therefore all other things being equal, a viral application will travel at a velocity proportional to the density of the social graph - Which we know is increasing! :)

    Paul Reilly
    http://facebump.com

  12. Scott SEO Specialist said:

    If NFO is the new SEO… why aren’t more sites using it? I certainly appreciate your analysis. As a member of Facebook, I see it strictly as “something fun.” My clients don’t bother with news feeds or social communities simply because they see no value. Is Web 2.0 just about getting Google search engine ranking? For most small businesses, that’s about it - another ‘buzz word’, must do, that eventually fizzles out after the hype. I really enjoy Facebook, but as for business, a lot of people don’t see the need.

    Scott

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