Each year, Forbes publishes the list of top 100 investors, called the Midas List (see our coverage, and full list).
It is closely watched by venture capitalists eager to see where they are in the pecking order. Forbes writer Erika Brown, leader of the ranking process, faces a barrage of calls and emails from investors each year, complaining how she has treated them. We spoke with Erika Brown yesterday to ask a few questions about Forbes’ ranking. Our Q&A is below. First, here’s what we do know about the ranking: Forbes looks at investor track records for the past five years. It looks at the market value of companies they backed, at the time of the companies’ exit, whether an IPO or an acquisition. It also looks at the amount of capital invested to get there. Less attention is given to the change in value of each investment since going public or being sold. Ranking also depends on a candidate’s length of involvement in, and depth of influence on, a company, which Forbes assesses through hundreds of interviews and surveys.
VentureBeat: A reader at VentureBeat claims in comments that the Midas List ranking method is problematic because investor like James Wei and Mike Orsak made the list in former years, even though they didn’t have very big exits. I don’t want to single them out, and I don’t even know if the reader’s claims are true, but how do you respond to these incessant criticisms about flawed rankings?
Brown: We have a team — two statisticians and three in editorial — who work on this project for months. It’s a really rigorous process. We try to improve the list every year. We added a new piece of information this year: The total amount of venture capital raised by a company. Until now, this was only available to us in SEC filings, and applied only to a small number of exits, namely public offerings. Most exits are acquisitions, and there’s little public data about those. The National Venture Capital Association and Thomson Financial agreed to share this with us for the first time. Now we have data for pretty much every deal out there. That alone made a huge change in the rankings.
VentureBeat: How did that improve things?
Brown: For instance, Stumbleupon. The company raised $2 million in venture capital, but its acquisition price when it was sold to Ebay was $75 million. That’s a 37x return. [Investors in StumbleUpon] are going to get a lot more credit. Last.FM raised $5 million, and it had a a $280 million acquisition. That’s a 53x return. On the other hand, companies like UGO, which raised $89 million, and sold for $100 million — that would count for very little. Companies like Vonage and SMIC are high up on the list of exit values, but we thought it was unfair to celebrate those deals above deals that may have had smaller exit valuations but which were more profitable for investors. SMIC raised $1.674 billion, and its market cap was $6 billion at IPO. But it declined from there. That’s another piece of the formula: “Value, if held.” We look at the delta [change] between exit value and the current value of a stock in a public company, or if it’s a private company, the delta in the stock of the acquiring company. We want to highlight people who build lasting, durable companies. We don’t want to celebrate guys who are good at flipping or timing the market, and who leave other people holding the bag.
VentureBeat: So in this case, Danny Rimer, of Index Venture, who invested in Last.Fm, rocketed up the rankings?
Brown: It kept him at the top.
VentureBeat: If five investors back a successful company, how do you treat them? Do you give them all equal credit for the deal, even though one of the investors may have put in more work?
Brown: No. Sometimes I call the entrepreneur [to ask which VCs should get credit]. If you were a very early investor and a board member, and you recruited the CEO independently and you introduced the acquirer to the company that led to the deal, you get a lot more credit than if you were in the F round of funding and came on just before the IPO. A lot of venture capitalists do try to inflate their rankings by giving us misleading information. Some times we get five VCs who claim credit for the same deal. We try to get the most accurate picture possible, by researching public documents and conducting hundreds of interviews with venture capitalists and entrepreneurs.
VentureBeat: How do you feel about the methodology as it stands now? Where are the main points of weakness in your view, and how much can those areas be addressed?
Brown: This is a very well cloaked industry, and until venture capitalists become transparent with their reporting, there’s only so much information we have at our disposal. We do the best job out there in my opinion in even attempting to rank these guys on a purely numerical basis. No one else does this. If you look at other rankings of venture capitalists, it’s based on popularity and public perception. Ideally, one day we’ll get access to the amount of venture capital each firm put into every company and how much they took out, but unfortunately the SEC doesn’t have the same say over venture capital as it does public companies. That information just isn’t available to us in a enough cases where it would be statistically relevant and fair to use [for the ranking]. There’s information for public companies, but [IPOs account for] a small percentage of exits in venture capital. We had 86 IPOs last year, 304 M&A deals.
VentureBeat: Why is David Cheriton, a Stanford professor, so high on the list, when he’s not really a professional investor, and some would argue he’s a one-hit wonder, having invested in Google, along with many other guys?
Brown: He made a boatload of money. He was an angel investor in Google, instrumental in the Google process. Larry and Sergey went to him first. But he’s also an advisor and a shareholder in a number of other companies too. And he’s a billionaire.
VentureBeat: Why are bankers like Michael Grimes, Paul Chamberlain on the list, or lawyers like Larry Sonsini?
Brown: That’s another question I get all the time. We think about that every year. Some people have a problem with it. We want to appeal to a broader readership that is really interested in all the power brokers in this industry. If you want to take a company public, you want to know who Michael Grimes is. If you want to make an acquisition, you want to know who Larry Sonsini is.
VentureBeat: Some would argue these service providers are commodities. Do they add that much value?
Brown: I don’t think they are commodities. A really good banker and a really good lawyer are going to help you get a better price for your acquisition. And a really good banker is going to help you get a higher asking price for your stock, if you go public.
VentureBeat: But how do you rank them — I mean, Google was going to be successful regardless of its banker.
Brown: They have a different questionnaire. They only get points if they are leader in the deal. But they don’t get as many points in a deal, as say a venture capitalist who is an early stage investor. In order for a banker or a lawyer to make our list, they have to have many more deals. Our list shows who those power brokers are, because there are so few of them, and it takes a lot of deals to get on [the List].
VentureBeat: Silicon Alley Insider complains there’s no New York investors included, implying you have a West Coast bias? How do you respond?
Brown: This is not a list that ranks the regional best. We’re on the look out for the biggest, blockbuster deals period.
8 Comments
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Nik said:
I am sorry thier “improvement” (response to Q2, see excerpt below) in ranking makes little sense…
Returns need to include how much of the company the investor got. For $2m, investors in StumbleUpon did not 100% of the equity and therefore did not get a 37 times return. So how can you compare apples to oranges.
Taking this further, Microsoft will look like a genius for thier $200+ investment in facebook for 10 times return when in reality they would have probably had a
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Nik said:
Some parts of my previous comment got eaten up…
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I am sorry thier “improvement” (response to Q2, see excerpt below) in ranking makes little sense…Returns need to include how much of the company the investor got. For $2m, investors in StumbleUpon did not 100% of the equity and therefore did not get a 37 times return. So how can you compare apples to oranges.
Taking this further, Microsoft will look like a genius for thier $200+ investment in facebook for 10 times return when in reality they would have probably had a
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Matt Johnson said:
Did anyone else notice the response to the question about James Wei and Mike Orsak was a non-response?
Also, it’s public information that very few of the companies they invested in went public or were acquired and each such company’s “success” can be attributed to Wei’s or Orsak’s “early investment, introduction to acquirer, hands-on recruiting of the CEO/leadership team,” etc. There is a higher number of companies where their involvement led to disaster for the companies and their employees and other shareholders.
A good PR agency, $$$, and such matter as much as the methodology Brown describes. -
Matt Johnson said:
What I meant to say in my last comment was:
“Also, it’s public information that very few of the companies Wei and Orsak invested in went public or were acquired and each such company’s “success” canNOT be attributed to anything but Wei’s or Orsak’s “early investment, introduction to acquirer,…” -
Cognoscenti said:
Midas was famous for turning to gold what was not. If the Midas List comprises of those with that golden touch it ought to focus on those that, through their traceable contribution and efforts, turned into gold what was lead or silver.
Mr Grimes and other bankers don’t fit that criteria as they are essentially middlemen looking at a preselected list of companies with growing revenues/profits and getting the Street to buy into the story. They don’t play a role of turning into gold what was lead…
There are some entrepreneurs and venture investors that have a track record of maximizing value from what’s on hand. Some are in that Midas List and kudos to Ms Brown and her team for recgnizing and including them. There are many however that never added value to their investments, have a track record of turning gold into lead and they ought never to have been included in the list. Examples from the past are Dave Spreng, Mike Orsak, Ken Virnig, James Wei and the current list contains many equivalents.
Wei and Orsak touted Ciena and NVidia as examples of their successful investments which catapulted them then into the Midas List of 2000 and a couple other years. Due diligence would have revealed they came into Ciena and NVidia as late investors, did not serve on the board, did not help in executive recruiting, going public, or anything remotely visible or quantifiable. On what basis then were they on the Midas List? Why not admit now they were on the list through an error and the error has now been corrected and they no longer belong there…?
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Matt Johnson said:
I agree with Cognoscenti. Midas transformed into higher quality and higher value what was lower quality and lower value. There are entrepreneurs of course trying to build something where there was nothing and some of them succeed, a few with that Midas Touch (and even fewer repeatedly.) There are a few venture investors that work with the entrepreneur and portfolio company and help in that transformation to higher value. Speak with any of the entrepreneurs, executives, board members and even industry colleagues that have worked with Spreng, Wei, Orsak and you’ll find no track record of the Midas Touch and plenty of evidence for the Sadim (reverse of Midas) Touch where they take something that is valuable and arguably golden and turn it into something that is less valuable and lead.
Mr Marshall, perhaps you need to start a Sadim List to highlight the existence and prominence of the reverse Midas Touch process in the Valley. Investing in, esp investing early in, serving on the board of, fighting with the entrepreneur(s), replacing executives with handpicked others and driving companies into the ground…are all visible, traceable, activities that qualify one for the list, and the bigger (more frequent) the screwups the higher in the list… -
Anthony Kuhn said:
Matt:
Good stuff! I like the inclusion of related bankers and lawyers in the mix and also interesting to see those not picked duking it out for inclusion. Seems a bit petty, actually. I linked to this post in my blog for the Innovators-Network as it’s topical and of interest to my readers.
Continued wishes for success,
Anthony Kuhn
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Max Bleyleben said:
This approach of ignoring the in-price of investments makes no sense. All the ranking tells you, based on this methodology, is who are the biggest over-payers in the market. Interesting, but their names are hardly surprising to any VC who is active in the market. And they aren’t likely to correspond very closely to those VCs that have delivered the greatest returns to their investors, which is the only metric that counts at the end of the day.
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