google ad senseA few days ago we were skeptical about whether the recent descent of Google’s stock price meant anything. A new report by comScore today suggests that the company’s recent drop in paid-click numbers may not be cause for worry at all, and instead may reflect improvements in their business model.

The company’s stock suffered a huge drop three days ago as a direct result of a decline in paid clicks and a leveling off of growth in that field overall. Yet according to comScore’s report, those results were a direct result of Google’s own initiatives meant to improve the quality of their advertisements.

These initiatives actually led to a reduction in the number of paid listings for 2007 — so it’s hardly surprising that click-through numbers would go down. Yet since the ads remaining are now more relevant to the consumer, revenue per click actually went up, offsetting what normally would be monetary losses of such changes.

ComScore’s researchers note that they would not be surprised at all to see this trend continue into 2008 — paid clicks go down, but revenue remains steady or improves.

Some might think that an increase in the quality of advertisements should lead to an increase in clicks for Google, but this can be debunked as well. If ads are more relevant, a consumers need fewer clicks to find what they’re looking for and thus won’t have to repeat searches that result in new ads for them to click on.

The data also indicates that those who think the poor economy overall is ruining paid click rates are wrong. After all, why would paid click rates have gone up for other search engines besides Google (as separate comScore data shows)? Unless you want to make the argument that in a poor economy consumers only stop clicking on Google ads, you’re going to have a hard time selling that point.

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  1. Google’s Brin and Page lose $17 billion, still take $1 salaries » VentureBeat said:

    [...] At $450-a-share, Google’s stock is now around $300 off of its peak price of $747.24 reached just in November of last year. The reason for such a fall is at least partially due to Google failing to meet lofty expectations Wall Street had set for it, but likely has just as much to do with the weakness of the economy as a whole as well (our coverage). Many tried to argue that a drop in search ad revenue likely meant big trouble for Google, but that was debunked a few days later (our coverage). [...]

  2. Google’s paid-click growth in March: The song remains the same? » VentureBeat said:

    [...] once again, I’ll repeat what we wrote two months ago: ComScore’s researchers note that they would not be surprised at all to see this trend continue [...]

  3. May 7th, 2008
    5:46 am

    fb7571d2b994 said:

    fb7571d2b994…

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2 Comments

  1. Clay said:

    Solid post MG. Some of us already knew the true story - http://www.searchenginuity.com/google-ctr-debacle/

  2. March 2nd, 2008
    9:12 pm

    RC said:

    What makes you think that every click through is of equal value. The lower click rate could generate an equal value even if there was no improvement in advertising relevance if less valuable clicks go elsewhere. The increase in other’s click rates could still be real and yet have no monetary value. Then again you sound like someone that believes the Google hype. Their stock is over valued no matter how you look at it. With a high profit margin but a low EPS it just shows that the market is disconnected from reality. If you think that google can maintain a 25% profit margin and continue to grow you must also believe someday that their PE will reach that of a mature company more along the lines of 15. If this is to be true than the sales and profit will have to rise by 7X from the current financials and stock price of $471. Do you really believe this to be possible?

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