Just a touchpad and a screen: A grand unified theory of Apple’s next big move

Ever since Apple’s chief financial officer, Peter Oppenheimer, referred to a “future product transition” during the company’s most recent earnings call, the tech news world has been abuzz. The most frenzied speculation has centered around a revision to the MacBook line. For some, the future holds a touchscreen MacBook or an ultra-portable tablet. Others envision a MacBook with a souped-up multi-touch touchpad made of glass positioned below or next to the keyboard. Since marginally informed speculation is the name of the game, I’m going to throw in some chips and say that most of this is likely off the mark.

Apple is out to send earthquakes through the market, make our jaws slacken and cash leap from our bank accounts and into its own. But I’m not sure any of the suggested possibilities would do this: A tablet, while still possible (even probable at some point) is too niche to be a huge deal, a larger multi-touch touchpad won’t knock many socks off and, for now, at least, 12-17″ touchscreens cost too much to make sense for all parties involved.

So what could Apple do that would compel Oppenheimer to speak of dramatic transitions and warn shareholders of an impending decrease in profit margins? Simple: It could take multi-touch to its logical next step, do away with the mouse and physical keyboard, replace it with one or two touchpads and change the way we interface with our machines.

Some people speculated about a multi-touch combination keyboard/touchpad when Apple released a patent for a dynamic touch surface last Fall (more on this later), so it surprises me that amidst all the speculation, this concept has not come back. VentureBeat’s MG Siegler has suggested that Apple would come up with some sort of next-generation interface and wondered about the relevance of a mouse when “you have the whole world at your fingertips?” A look at the string of Apple’s multi-touch patents strongly suggests that giving us a laptop that answers this question is the company’s goal.

We’ll start with the most obvious one: A patent for a wide touchpad on a portable computer. This diagram from the filing tells the story:

You can see that there are numerous possible configurations for such a device and, yes, one of them has both a keyboard and a large touchpad.

While this is certainly possible, Apple has a grander vision, one outlined in a series of patents for an all-purpose multi-touch input device. Designed by Wayne Westerman, the interface designer Apple brought on when it acquired Westerman’s company, Fingerworks, these patents detail a system for typing and controlling the computer on the same surface.

Westerman’s words from one of these patent applications are even more telling: “the user should not need to provide explicit mode switch signals such as button presses, arm relocations, or stylus pickups before switching from one input activity to another.” In other words, Westerman envisions an interface that doesn’t require us to move our hands beyond their home position, ever.

This is a wonderful concept, save for one looming problem: Typing on a flat surface is far from ideal. Indeed, a study from the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society found that people typed less efficiently and less accurately on a multi-touch keyboard and found the process unpleasant. But, as others have pointed out, Apple has thought of this, too. In two patents, “keystroke tactility arrangement on a smooth touch surface,” and “force imaging input device and system,” the company outlines a number of ways the problems of typing on a flat surface could be overcome.

These diagrams suggest some of the possibilities. Figure 4 represents slightly raised bumps, much like those that define the home keys on conventional keyboards. Figures 5 and 6 represent a more dynamic system in which the surface actually changes with the way you’re using it. When you’re typing, you get pressure-sensitive feedback. If you’re gesturing, you just feel a smooth surface. It would not be easy to make this a seamless experience, but if there are designers that could pull it off, they are probably working for Apple.

Last is the recently published “multi-touch gesture dictionary,” patent application, which details how to use a combination of fingers and gestures to initiate a wide range of commands. There are a set number of possible motions and the set of commands change based on the number of fingers that touch the surface at the same time. The range of possible gestures and finger combinations seem to handle everything we currently do with a mouse.

So there you have it: a theory for the next generation of computer input, derived without shady tips and composed entirely of marginally informed speculation.

“Apple,” Oppenheimer said on the earnings call, “makes state of the art new products that the competition just can’t match.” If Apple actually eliminates the physical keyboard and mouse duo and does it brilliantly, the competition will find itself more than outmatched. It would be in checkmate.

[photo: flickr/Lolo_]

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About the Author, Dan Kaplan

Once upon a time, Dan considered himself a magazine journalist with dreams of "The New Yorker" and a couple of well-reviewed but only mildly successful books. Then one day, life, as it is known to do, decided it was time for rebirth. Like so many things before it, this rebirth was conceived on a mostly-empty plane to Reno. Now, instead of magazine writing, Dan would plunge into the world of New Media and write for Matt Marshall's blog.

It's funny how it goes.

  • Compelling vision. The language of gesture, however, remind me of Palm's Grafitti...useful but with a learning curve. The wonderful thing about the current language of touch on macs is that it mimics what you might do in an elastic world. Somehow, it makes sense. I suspect that vocabulary is pretty limited, and we may soon be making gestures on our Macs and iPhones that make sense only to a few in Cupertino. Let's see if I am still young enough to learn a new language. (Perhaps Rosetta Stone will come out with an Apple Touch translation package!)
  • Tom, you raise an excellent point. Unless the multi-touch language is as simple, quick and fun to learn as the iPhone, it will face a problem of mainstream acceptance. I think if Apple does make a bold move like this, they will have to make it almost effortless to learn. A 20 minute tutorial might get the ball rolling, and I'd tolerate a short learning curve if I never had to learn another set of hotkeys.

    So this raises a good argument against my theory. I do think that that the mouse's time approaches its end, but perhaps it might not happen as soon as I think. One way acclimate users to the new touch language may be to give them a stepping stone. This would give weight to the theory of an enlarged touchpad that supports a broad touch dictionary, but doesn't require you to use it alone.
  • So the only piece missing from your post is, "What's the killer app?" My guess is to build a device targeted as the interactive TV/gaming/video services play for broadband.

    This ties in with the video chipset rumors, since in this scenario, Apple will need to support media playback that runs concurrent with service overlays for things like dynamic ad units, in-line messaging and information feeds, i.e., interactivity on top of video, gaming etc.

    Plus, this type of land grab would be harmonious with iPhone/iPod/AppleTV/Mac, and leverages some of their unfair advantages, while giving a lot of potential love to QuickTime as an the authoring platform for interactive TV/media.

    Finally, it has the potential to avoid carriers where it makes sense, do ala carte deals where it makes sense (e.g., HBO to disrupt Comcast) and, as a fixed broadband wireless play, overcomes both battery and broadband limitations.

    Thoughts?

    Mark
  • Mark: To me, the killer app is never having to move my hands from keyboard to mouse/trackpad every time I want to input a command. I use a lot of hotkeys, but those are not intuitive to most people and I don't like having to learn a new set of them for everything.

    That said, your point about interactive media is quite interesting. It certainly would be a great use of multi-touch and I imagine we will see something like this in the future. As MG pointed out to me, Robert Cringley has a similar take as you do, and his argument is solid.

    http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2008/pulpit_...
  • Thanks for including the Cringely link, Dan. My thinking was somewhat of a connect the dots between your post, Cringely's posts (dating back to last year) and larger reading of tea leaves of what's a big enough bet to risk the instability that goes with mucking with margins.
  • The killer app is that it goes in your dashboard replacing the radio with lifeforce mobility and cloud access:
    http://fragerfactor.blogspot.com/2008/08/breaki...
  • Justin
    How about a competitor in the ultra-mobile lower-price-point market? Take the MacBook Air chassis, and leverage the design knowledge of the iPhone. Put in a lower-end chipset, Intel Atom based or maybe ARM based (like the iPhone). Instead of running the full Mac OS X, make software installation more like the iPhone AppStore, so Apple can get a revenue share from applications sold.

    Apple being Apple, the hardware price won't be that low, so it would definitely hit margins to be competitive. Apple could assume some apps-revenue per user, adopting the console 'up-front loss' model.

    But they could also adapt from the iPhone pricing strategy, and bundle in a 3G card, offering always-on connectivity. Of course, you would need a data-subscription, which would then convert into a price-break.

    Only Apple could really pull this off right now - they have the iPhone and the MacBook Air, the carrier relationships, and the AppStore.
  • Another interesting possibility. I'm not sure this would constitute a major product transition, though. I think an ultra-mobile may be in Apple's roadmap, but I think this change (whatever it is) will roll through the entire Macbook product line.

    MG has suggested that Apple sell software (among other things) through the App store, and I think you are both on to something there.
  • KenC
    Let's just assume that next quarter's margins are affected by 3%, which on about $8B in sales is roughly $240M in higher costs. What is it that could cost Apple an additional $240M in higher costs? It can't be a niche, like an AppleTV as it doesn't generate enough sales to add $240M in incremental costs. I'm thinking LED-based screens. These are still rather expensive in large sizes. Apple has shown in their laptops, the 15"MBP that they will keep the same price point but offer the more expensive LED-based backlight, thus eating the additional costs in margins. In the 17" MBP, they have been offering an LED-backlight as a $100 upgrade. What if Apple were to bring LEDs to all of their laptops and desktops and to their monitors, which need a refresh, while keeping the same price points? Let's say an additional 2M Macs with LED-backlights at an incremental cost of $100+. That's easily $200M+. Right in the neighborhood of the Gross Margin impact.
  • Sounds plausible. It would certainly be a let down, though.
  • vic_one
    Personally I expect to see SSM as standard in a new lower cost iBook and optional in the MBP. Their had been rumors earlier in the year of a massive buy by Apple of SSM. This fits with Apple's CFOs comments about reducing cost over time in order to restore margins. JMHO.
  • I doubt it, considering Apple's affinity to have very powerful chipsets, bright screens and the like... but I'd love to see, more than anything else, better laptop battery life. I'm waiting to buy a new computer until mid-September when new notebooks are expected to arrive. I would love to see Apple have some battery life they could really brag about, like 8 hours or better.

    Sure, it wouldn't be flashy or anything like that, but I guarantee everyone would love it.
  • Looks excellent!
  • TH
    I'm frequently amazed when I think "Wouldn't it be great if someone made something that..." and then they do. Or at least someone else talks about it, which gives me hope. I would love a multi-touch "keyboard", especially with tactile feedback. Would be OK on a laptop, or as a stand-alone for my desktop. Even better if it had a something like a limited display under it. Show me the keys, then flick and show me pallets, then flick and show me the controls to the latest game, or the controls to iTunes. Hate to say it, but makes me think of the touch pads/controls on StarTrek.
  • Dostrower
    While I also believe Apple will eventually introduce a revolutionary new interface for PCs, Oppenheimer's comments are not enough to indicate it is coming.

    Oppenheimer made almost the exact same comment in a July 2007 conference call: http://www.forbes.com/2007/07/25/apple-3q-earni...

    I think the transition turned out to be new iPods and iMacs? Has anyone confirmed what it was? Not sure exactly, but nothing so dramatic. As KenC points out, it doesn't need to be.
  • Good point. It could be much more mundane. My forecast could be off by a few releases but, like you, I think Apple will change the PC game with something like I've described.
  • John
    Going by the past, I think it is unlikely that Apple will release something that could be considered a paradigm shift in how we interact with our computers. You're looking at a situation of long-term, drawn out acceptance if it is necessary for users to learn a "new language." (FWIW, I think it's a bit of a stretch to consider the mouse a paradigm shift in computer interaction. For most people, it was the wide spread everyday use of PCs that represented a paradigm shift and the mouse was just part of it.)

    Most likely there will be a transitory type of device. My thoughts are on a single model, non-language specific, touch screen keyboard with key layouts that can be customized by the user. Want a DVORK layout? You got it. Need a keyboard you can switch from one language to another? You got it. Need a keyboard with a left handed numeric keypad? You got it. Don't need a numeric keypad and want a larger touch pad? You got it.
  • gregggallagher
    John:

    Am not sure of your age and where you may have been ~25+ years ago when graphical/mouse-based computing first went mainstream, but it was a true major shift in the computer interface paradigm that actually drove the widespread use of PCs (obviating the need for lengthy/complex command-line inputs).
  • Sascha
    I think that there is nothing revolutionary in this multi-touch thing since I think future should be in this:

    Computers in general should recognize your voice that you will be able to use towards all commands, typing, dictating, working around the OS with all possible applications.

    Touching is just a phase in passing old technology going towards the new one. Apple should think about it and skip the multi-touch thing going forward with VOICE RECOGNITION systems where LAPTOPS would be just one touchscreen equipped with great recognition hardware (mic, speakers, application) and voila! That would be something APPLE should think about - not touchpad based keyboards...
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