Revenue search continues, as Facebook (and LinkedIn?) employee stock sale begins

Christmas may come a little early for Facebook employees who own stock in their company. This summer, we learned the social network was planning a unique method of keeping talented employees happy before a surely-distant initial public offering. The company began the program on Nov. 1, we’ve confirmed. We also hear that LinkedIn has a nearly identical — if not fully identical — employee stock sale plan, but we don’t have more details on it other than what we’ve previously reported (and it may have been called off).

Facebook is brokering the employee stock sale program with third parties but won’t actually buy stock back itself, a source close to the company says. Facebook’s employee common stock has previously been priced at a valuation of slightly less than $4 billion. Separately, Facebook has apparently upped the common stock valuation by five percent, a source tells Silicon Alley Insider — putting the common stock valuation at slightly above $4 billion (apparently with a strike price of $9.27 per share, versus the prior round’s $8.90).

What about revenue?

SAI hears from its same source that Facebook is making $265 million in revenue this year. Facebook’s fiscal year doesn’t close until the end of December, so that number is strangely specific given the present uncertainty about advertising spending and virtual gift revenue the company might bring in during the approaching holiday season. Also, $265 million is exactly how much eMarketer projected Facebook would make in U.S. advertising, in a study from last May.

We’ve heard from several sources over the last year that Facebook expects to make more than $300 million this year; the Wall Street Journal cites sources saying the same number, in an article today.

So, I’d take the $265 million number less seriously if SAI’s source didn’t also detail Facebook’s revenue stream breakdown:

Facebook’s revenue this year will be about $265 million, the source says, which is less than the $300 million expected. The source estimates that this is composed of about $180 million of ad revenue, $50-$60 million of virtual gifts, and some smaller revenue items. (unconfirmed)

The number for Facebook’s virtual gifts revenue sounds generally right, given what others and myself have been hearing about that revenue stream. If so, then is Facebook really just making a total of $180 million off of ad revenue?

Sure, Facebook’s various experiments in advertising still haven’t made the company billions of dollars, despite the $15 billion preferred-stock valuation the company got last year (as part of a strategic investment by Microsoft). But Facebook overtook long-time leader MySpace in terms of worldwide traffic this past summer. MySpace has seen its traffic drop, yet it will near the $1 billion revenue mark this year, we’ve previously heard.

MySpace has focused on revenue while Facebook continues to focus on growth.

What to do with all that growth?

Questions around Facebook’s current and planned revenue will circulate until the company eventually goes public and officially releases that information. Today, for example, the Wall Street Journal article is the latest report to point out that large advertisers have yet to get excited about Facebook’s ad offerings. Fox Interactive Media, the News Corp. division dominated by MySpace, brought in 15.9 percent of display advertising spending in the U.S. in the month of June, according to an old comScore study, while Facebook was bringing in 1.1 percent — that percentage includes ads served by Microsoft on Facebook.

The reason is that Fox Interactive Media (mostly MySpace) has 87.5 million users in the U.S. — the world’s most valuable display advertising market — while Facebook has 41.5 million, according to comScore’s monthly web traffic report from September. (Note: Comscore seems to generally overcount social networking site traffic. For example, Facebook says its internal numbers show 120 million monthly active users worldwide, while comScore says it has more than 160 million).

Facebook, however, has big growth in smaller but still-lucrative markets like Canada, the U.K, and Asia. Maybe it can monetize all that traffic? Today, it’s announcing a licensing deal with Asia-focused ad agency ihub Media for direct ad sales in Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan, in an effort to do just that.

MySpace has been busy selling display ads on its homepage and other key locations, something Facebook has studiously avoided. Instead, Facebook has experimented with a wide variety of other ad formats, including ads that appear in users’ news feeds and along the left-hand side of the site. These ads can include ways for people to interact with them — by following a link to become a fan of a product’s official Facebook page, for example. It’s not clear how much money these “engagement” ads are bringing in, with the latest version featuring new interactive features only being launched in August.

Speculation has already begun as to how Facebook could make money off of display ad revenue. What would a money-making display ad campaign on Facebook look like? Like MySpace? Andrew Chen, a serial entrepreneur with a background in advertising technology, created the mockup of a banner-filled Facebook, above, to show what that might mean.

Companies like movie fan site and social network application Flixster have been finding success with running such interactive “engagement” campaigns with movie studios, says Jeremy Liew at Lightspeed Ventures.

Even if Facebook makes that $265 million this year, it does not mean shares in the company are a lot closer to worthless. It has been holding operating costs down as it prepares for the long haul, we’ve heard, through doing things like building its own servers. Meanwhile, as the blog AllFacebook recently examined in detail, Facebook may be rolling out a targeted ad service that works across the web.

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About the Author, Eric Eldon

Eric currently covers digital media technology and business news, especially what's happening on social networks and their platforms. He also writes and edits stories about venture capital, and lots of other stuff, too. He started at VentureBeat in the spring of 2007, half a year or so after Matt Marshall left his reporting job at the San Jose Mercury News to found the site. Eric previously cofounded a startup called Writewith, that was building editorial software for newspapers and other groups of writers. The startup didn't work out, but he learned a lot.

  • Where do you go to buy this stocks?
  • dDabby
    facebook hasnt gone public yet, so u and me cannot buy any stocks, except u have a couple of hundreds of millions left and u would like to buy a share of facebook.
  • its amazing how everyone is trying to make a profit in these times of crisis...
  • Facebook is the grinch that stole christmas

    What about stock option for members/content creators that have given Facebook their Value ?


    Maybe in these hard financial times Facebook should be thinking about how it can help its members and users; save, time, money, and maybe even generate revenue.

    I think that this is only fair since Facebook has generated a 15 Billion dollar valuations on the back of members content and actions.

    At adelph.us we think its time to turn the web 2.0 share cropper model on its head.

    Demand something in exchange for your content. It has value.

    At adelph.us we put the community first and bring the main street web into reality.
  • Couple this story with the Playlist one from yesterday and you have some interesting questions. Facebook and Playlist are both facing the same issue. That is, massive growth >> ?? >> massive revenues. So bringing in somebody who's wrestled with it at Facebook makes some sense, but we're still waiting to see what answers emerge.
  • DoubleStaxx
    Im gonna buy some stock on the IPO wait until it burns up the charts then sell it back for a little profit. People who have no idea will think its the next google but in reality its just going to be another Crash and Burn Enron scenario.
  • Jess Beaner
    Must be nice. Glad to see someone not affected by the sour economy.

    jess
    http://web-anonymity.vze.com
  • Dan
    The ingenesist project specifies 3 web applications which if deployed to Social Networks would allow social, creative, and intellectual capital to become tangible outside the construct of corporations. This is what everyone is betting on; The tangibility of Knowledge should be the headline of any social media article or innovation economy concept today.

    The current financial crisis may lead to enough disruption to induce an innovation economy. Money will be backed by future productivity based on innovation. Today, money is backed by future productivity based of supporting debt. This will be the domain of social networks.

    Here is the most optimistic outcome of the financial crisis posted on the web today:

    http://www.ingenesist.com/general-info/2008-fin...

    Complete discussion http://www.ingenesist.com

    It's not impossible!

    Enjoy
  • Greg
    @william, facebook do you not owe you anything, they don't owe you because you use their free service. They are a company and they are entitled to make money in return for providing their service.
  • Facebookdie
    Facebook steals personal data. And refuse to delete it.
  • guest
    steals? i'm pretty sure all 120-160 million users volunteer their data in exchange for the free service...

    as for refusal to delete it, it's in their TOS. if you don't agree with it, don't create an account, it's that simple
  • John
    Word up. People should realise that TOS's generally contain some things we might not like. Even now after all of the problems that have been going on with it I bet theres loads of chaps/chapettes that haven't read it but still bitch and moan.

    I personally don't care whether or not it stays on or not. So what, people know your name. You wouldn't give something of value to someone you don't really know, so why do it on websites?
  • I have my Facebook account because of laziness I never had a time to update this account. I dont have my own computer in our home and in the office I concentrate doing my task for the day.I dont want to have a small output.
  • 120 million users and only $180 million of ad revenue is the strongest evidence I have yet seen that advertising is NOT a valid way of support social networks. By contrast, business focused network XING in germany reported record profits this week on only 6 million users, although that was 53% up over the year and half a million pay. Perhaps Facebook needs to start thinking what it could charge its users for.

    Ian Hendry
    CEO, WeCanDo.BIZ
    http://www.wecando.biz
  • You're right Ian. While FB page views are scaling, CPMs are falling. The net effect: disappointing ad revenues. Having said that, they're smart. I suspect they're looking for more revenue streams like gift referral that 1. Create value for users AND 2. Leverage FB's social nature.

    What might that include:
    1. Charging application developers for premium placement - Pay for traffic.
    2. Providing volume discount programs for FB groups - I'd join a MacBook Pro buying group today.
    3. Charging for value-added services that have few, if any, free substitutes - Their coming music program might be the best example. Match.com-like partnerships also come to mind.

    More here: http://snurl.com/57gfq
  • Must be nice. Glad to see someone not affected by the sour economy.
  • Why couldn't this say Facebook is coming to an end. . . . along with Myspace. . . . I could practically hear the choirs of seraphim singing to my ears. . . . How about all these crappy medians of product placement go away.. . . along with their pseudo-intellectual trendy users. . . Sorry, that was kind of harsh, I know.
  • Thinking
    Don't get your knickers in a bunch just yet. For a company that is supposedly valued at $14 billion U.S., bringing in $265 million of revenue is not exciting. That is revenue folks, not PROFIT. Big difference. There isn't even a mention of what kind of a profit, if any, that Facebook is turning. Remember that little old dotcom, boom and bust? Hugely overblown valuations and no real profits.

    Myspace is listed as have around $1 billion in revenue this year, again, REVENUE. Not profit. But considering they are doing more with less, that's still better than Facebook. Facebook's profits would have to grow astronomically for the company to be worth the $14 billion valuation to be accurate.

    Employ a bit of basic accounting and some common sense please.
  • Market Share
    Profits are not important to Facebook at the moment. Neither is revenue, really. This is about market share. That is why they are valued so high. To reap huge ad revenue would mean backlash from users, and that is the exact opposite goal of FB. As long as this company keeps growing and becoming the "online identity" of people all over the world, they will keep gaining value. Once they have established a monopoly on social networks, then they will unroll the real revenue models. Until then, they are only tip-toeing around in the advertising department because they want their free service to be as appealing as possible to new users.
  • But it's market share of a market spending no money on such services. How is that worth $14bn? Or even $1bn? I compare it to free sheet newspapers: you can't count their circulation as everyone who gets one put through their letterbox, as most get binned before being read. That's quite different to the circulation of a newspaper people have opened their wallet to buy.

    There is no New Economy. There is just old economy rules with people who are dumb enough to think they don't apply. They were flushed out in the Dot Com collapse and with 18 months of recession ahead of us I am quite sure we will see history repeating itself if they don't beef up their business plans soon.

    Ian Hendry
    CEO, WeCanDo.BIZ
    http://www.wecando.biz
  • I have my Facebook account because of laziness I never had a time to update this account. I dont have my own computer in our home and in the office I concentrate doing my task for the day.I dont want to have a small output
  • edhardy622
    British law student sues Abercrombie-Fitch for disability discrimination.
    http://www.abercrombieshop.us