Is the big Facebook advertising experiment working?

Facebook sacked its chief financial officer today, as the company stares down rumors about difficulties getting financing and high growth-driven costs — now it is defending itself to the press by saying it is on track to beat revenue projections and make 70 percent more than in 2008. Facebook brought in revenues of nearly $300 million in 2008, I’ve previously confirmed, so could that mean around $500 million in 2009? This number is substantially higher than what we’ve heard its internal revenue projections to be (between somewhere under $400 million to possibly as high as $430 million). So what’s going on?

The company has been running banner ads through a deal with Microsoft for years, but a source close to the company says that its revenues have become “less and less dependent” on them as a way of making money. Instead, Facebook seems to be making more money on anything from its own banner ad sales to its experimental advertising efforts. The latter includes ways for advertisers to pay for their public page to show up within Facebook’s homepage “highlights” section. It also offers a range of self-serve advertising on other parts of the site, including ways to target ads to particular demographic groups on the site — these ads have been a big contributor to revenue, TechCrunch recently heard.

Facebook has doubled in size to 200 million users since last August alone. Advertisers want to understand how to reach its users (at least users who advertisers deem able to buy their products, namely those in wealthier countries, more on that in a moment). Maybe advertisers are putting more money into Facebook versus other web ads to see if or how they might work better. Facebook is constantly tuning where its ads appear, along with the rest of its redesigns, so creatively advertising to its users is an at least — how does one say — evolving process. Or, maybe those experimental ads are actually working and that’s why advertisers are apparently spending more on it.

Wait. Ad revenue is growing for a social network?

If advertising is where Facebook is making its money, it’s going against the other main trend in trying to monetize social networks. Tencent, a Chinese web portal, IM client, social network and more, made over a billion in revenue last year — mostly from virtual goods. Other social networks are headed in that direction. Most prominently, hi5 — a social network with 62 million monthly active users around the world, but not so much in advertising-rich countries — cut half its staff today because it couldn’t raise funding. It is apparently refocusing its resources on virtual currency, doing things like selling virtual goods within games.

Facebook doesn’t know how long its growth trajectory might hold up, and maybe it will begin to look closer into virtual currency. The company says it’s still thinking about some sort of universal payment service for third party developers and their games, but so far we haven’t seen more than its own years-old virtual gifts feature.

So far, MySpace is the other U.S.-origin social network that is making serious ad money — that I know of. It has more users in the U.S. than Facebook, and may have made up to $800 million last year off a range of ad products, including lots of banner ads as well as self-serve and demographic-targeted ads. Third party estimates suggest that MySpace made less than it thought it was going to.

What we still don’t know is if Facebook has figured out a way to get long-term growth — especially beyond banner ads — or if the new money is of a more fleeting kind. At least the company appears to be able to pay for its growth, as I wrote yesterday. Today, it says it expects to be cash-flow positive by 2010.

Debates about how to make money and cover costs appear to have led to Facebook CFO Gideon Yu’s departure today. Note: He’s already been replaced by an interim chief financial officer, Silicon Valley veteran Peter Currie. Yu left because of conflict with company founder Mark Zuckerberg, according to AllThingsD, over issues ranging from “increasing advertising revenue to fund-raising discussions with investors.”

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About the Author, Eric Eldon

Eric currently covers digital media technology and business news, especially what's happening on social networks and their platforms. He also writes and edits stories about venture capital, and lots of other stuff, too. He started at VentureBeat in the spring of 2007, half a year or so after Matt Marshall left his reporting job at the San Jose Mercury News to found the site. Eric previously cofounded a startup called Writewith, that was building editorial software for newspapers and other groups of writers. The startup didn't work out, but he learned a lot.

  • MarbleHost
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  • I click on the ad links from time to time. They do an OK job of targeting me - especially with promotions from music that I am fond of... I'm not as fond of the B to B advertising since I use FB more for personal connections than for business connections.
  • Is Tony Montana losing the plot or are investors wagging the dog?
  • Justin Credible
    Don't forget, Myspace had a big ad deal with Google. 1/3 of revenue was made from this deal and Google is probably not going to renew the deal at the same value. We all knew that was coming when Sergey Brin said "social networking is hard to monetize." It may of been Larry though.
  • ponziexplorer
    So the revenue is $2.2 / user / year (assuming 200 million users)?? Sounds like trouble.
  • I'm running ads and my click rate is pretty low for the amount of impressions and I'm trying multiple ads.
  • I really like the facebook advertising system, as an advertiser I can be very specific to the audience that gets my ads. I have noticed less conversions coming from facebook traffic, which is a downer, but I often have significant savings in the cost per lead through them too. Guess I would classify the program as a winner for internet marketers and I am glad to see them making some dough for their efforts in providing this channel for us.
  • Well I know the ads I get are not tailored to me at ALL and are completely uninteresting. Does Facebook care? No, but the advertisers who pay to get all their wedding ads should. Seems like all females my age get bombared with these and get no ads based on our actual interests.
  • Eric -- Much to our surprise, Facebook advertising is turning out to be very effective. In recent campaigns, the conversion rates from Facebook ad traffic have been 2X to 3X the conversion rates from Google Adwords, the perenial bellweather. I think Facebook will generate significant long-term revenue from advertising and may prove to be more of a challenge to Google's ad supremacy than is currently assumed. If you would like more information, please contact me at mark@internexperts.com or www.internexperts.com. Thx!
  • @ponziexplorer why should that sound like trouble? $2.2/user/year should be enough to cover their operating cost plus quite a bit more of expenses.
    Do you have more detailed information about Facebook's costs?