3 reasons the new Windows phones are doomed

clip_image002_193a3169I don’t hate Microsoft, honest. But the company’s mobile phone software has time and again failed to catch on as a hot consumer product. Statistics from mobile ad server AdMob say that in June, Google’s Android platform surpassed Windows Mobile in percentage of phones in use.

The latest revision of Microsoft’s Windows Mobile platform, due October 6, will include gear from HP, HTC, LG, Samsung and Toshiba. Buyers will have a blessedly wide choice of carriers: Verizon, AT&T, Bell Mobility, Sprint, and TELUS.

In a blog post pre-announcing the October 6 release date for new Windows phones, Stephanie Ferguson, Microsoft’s General Manager of Business Experiences for their Mobile Communications Business, talked about some of Microsoft’s findings in interviews with smartphone buyers, and parts of Microsoft’s strategy for the Windows Mobile platform.

1. Too many phone models. Ferguson wrote that “One thing that was very clear after all these conversations about phones is that there is no ‘one size fits all’ in this market. On Oct. 6th, you’ll see new Windows phones designed for a variety of tastes, needs and price points — with or without keyboards, with or without touch screens, as well as your choice of GPS, accelerometer and high resolution camera.” I’m confused already. Don’t give me endless options, give me two or three models I can lust after.

There’s one very strong real-world argument to be made for having dozens of models: Nokia does it, and Nokia sells more phones than its next three competitors combined. But Apple, RIM, and Palm have shown that a simplified product line works better for premium-price smartphones. Quick: Name one of Nokia’s smartphones. Which one is the top of the line model? You probably aren’t sure. Windows Mobile is going to have this same problem.

2. Productivity isn’t what buyers really want. Ferguson says that 74% of the people Microsoft met with to talk about their smartphone needs “listed productivity as the top feature they value in their smartphone.” Productivity is what people say they want. Then they go buy the prettier phone. Ferguson proves it by calling out the new phones’ biggest alleged productivity feature: Touchscreens. As an iPhone owner/sufferer, I have trouble believing she believes that. When I need to get something done in a hurry, I whip out the old BlackBerry with its much more productive real keyboard.

3. Most people who carry a Windows phone don’t realize it’s running Windows Mobile. It’s the most shocking surprise in Ferguson’s post. But it also points to a huge opportunity for Microsoft. She wrote: “We also heard from many people considering their very first smartphone purchase that they’d very strongly consider a phone running Windows because it’s a brand they know and trust. You’ll see us try to simplify our branding so it’s easier for people to know when they’re carrying a Windows phone and easier to find them in stores.” Yes, please wallpaper the Verizon store with Windows Phone logos, and budget a Bing-sized marketing campaign with product placements on TV and the Internet. Otherwise it’ll always feel like Microsoft’s ambitious cellphone platform didn’t get the shot it deserved.

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About the Author, Paul Boutin

Paul (paul@venturebeat.com) covers Apple & the iPhone, social networks & social media, digital music & video, and any crazy Internet story. Paul wrote and edited for Valleywag from 2006-2008, after several years with Wired magazine and Slate. He writes regularly for The New York Times' technology section and sometimes for Wired and The Wall Street Journal. He studied computer science at MIT in the early 1980s, and worked as a software developer and network administrator for 15 years before becoming a professional writer. Follow him on Twitter at @paulboutin, and follow VentureBeat on Twitter at @venturebeat.

  • jabberwolf
    1-Too many phone models?!
    That's like saying Windows is doomed because there are too many PC makers out there.
    Yeah that worked out horribly doe them right?

    2-Productivity isn’t what buyers really want.
    Yeah because the trendy people want to bling and not function. Um that's about 7% of the market. The rest of us want function - basically following the percentage of PC users out there as well.
    Actually People want both, it all. That's why blackberries still horribly dominate over iphone sales.

    3- Most people who carry a Windows phone don’t realize it’s running Windows Mobile.
    Isnt that a win for MS ? People have heard how horrible it is, but still use it. Now with a much better phone OS, they should be able to sell it. The good thing about most people, that they will think for themselves. They go to a store, try it, and if they like it, will buy it.

    "Paul covers Apple & the iPhone, social networks & social media, digital music & video, and any crazy Internet story." This explains his lack of interest in anything functional.
  • JT
    'jabberwolf'

    your compare mobile with the PC market which has completely different historicals and dynamics
    this is why I'm placing you in the 'clueless' category
  • If you want to compare Windows Mobile and Windows desktop… in the PC, I know I can get software fix from Microsoft and when they release new Windows I can buy and install it myself without having to be at the mercy of the phone maker who prefers selling new device.

    Their excuse is compatibility and special setup from maker & carrier.
    If they could just have the maker to give driver updates available from Windows Update like PC.

    … that might be too technical for most users though.
  • susan33
    The truth of the matter is simple:

    "Windows" works great on huge screens, full-size keyboards, tons of RAM, huge harddrives, 5-button mouse, etc.

    None of those things are a part of my PDA or Cell Phone.

    When you work with a 3" touch-screen... you just have to think (very) differently... and design your software (very) differently.

    Ever wonder why the iPhone is selling like crazy?

    Guess.
  • artzman
    I Love my HTC Windows Mobile 6.1 phone. It does everything the IPhone still struggles with, and it has done it all for years.
  • a
    Just because you have a physical and awkward keyboard doesn't mean the phone is more productive.

    The Black Berry Ball is cumbersome at best, Using an iphone one can be quite productive given they understand its interface.
  • ohhhjohnny
    Sigh. Paul, you're out of your element here.
    The Apple model for smartphones is great for them, and consistent with their approach to desktop PCs, but it doesn't mean that's how every player should approach smartphones. Another company you fap over, Google, is taking a similar platform approach to mobile operating systems, are they not as keen as you are? Also, RIM offers a ton of different models as well: Storm, Tour, Curve, with or without cameras, Bold, etc.

    2. Not everyone buys the prettiest device. Of course, a lot do. But this is going to be a gigantic market, and the productivity-focused, or non-touch fans will actually buy a device for productivity and not just for fart apps.

    3. Agree with Jabberwolf -
  • Richard
    Microsoft doesn't get it. Microsoft seldom has. They are in an eviable position regarding operating systems because a couple decades ago a lot of business people decided it was a safe choice. Rather than carve out a market against stiff competition, creating cutting edge product, Microsoft have stumbled from success to success. Well, branching into ther's markets has taken a toll. It's expensive and often does nothing to really promote Microsoft as a brand. Regarding 'trust', if you trust this company after the disaster of Windows Vista then you are just the supercharged business doer they're looking for.

    I've had a great many gadgets over the years and most of them lay about gathering dust, not because they became last year's thing, but because they didn't do what I needed well or efficiently. Create a cumbersome interface and you doom yourself. 'Less is more' is a great idea too often discounted or ignored all together. I'd like a mobile device I can take pictures with, talk on and surf the web, but you won't get me by throwing in tons of features I don't need, which other simpler devices may do much better. I have an iPod, it has a clunky interface and the software on my PC, oh, don't get me started on how poorly that was engineered, but if I put it on to play tunes, podcasts or Old Time Radio mp3s (most of which are like buried treasure!) the iPod does an adequate job. I don't want to listen to music on my mobile phone, because that'll run down the battery for when I need my phone to be a phone.

    Keep It Simple, Stupid should be adopted as a motto for Microsoft. Create a lean environment, with a simple, fast interface and let the users decide what apps and expandability they want. Don't do like Windows and cram everything in the world in there, just in case they may need it to have that eXtreme eXperience.
  • I love windows based phones there the best and more user friendly.
  • sk
    you are a tool
  • Hey, I hope it sucks less than 6.1, btw the moto q9c is a piece of crap
  • spinoza2
    The author proves Microsoft's view that there are a variety of tastes with smartphones: I have the opposite experience than the author, I can type with my iPhone much more quickly than I ever could with my old Blackberry. Also, the ease of use in terms of the UI, Web browsing, and apps is incomparably better with my iPhone than any other phone I've seen or experienced. If this is "suffering" with one's iPhone, than please, bring on more of that cool, clean suffering!
  • erick_p
    You must be the only one then. The typing interface on iphone is clunky at best, even after 3 months when it has "learned" your way of typing. If you're an oriental woman with super-petite fingers, then maybe it works for you. Other than that, the BB is a fantastic typing machine. I use the Bold. The trackball you so lament is hardly needed because of all the shortcuts.
  • I was never a big fan of Windows Mobile Phones. Had a very bad experience a couple of years ago. But maybe they are more advanced now. Well, even if that's truth I would not change from my iPhone. It's just working to good together with all my apple stuff.

    Cheers
    Pete
  • Nokia and Samsung control the market for both phones and smart phones. Samsung supplies most electronic parts to most other phone vendors.
    The competitors are more or less for still having some competitors in the market.
  • I'm just not sure that Microsoft even knows how to develop operating systems for consumer devices. Their core DNA is all about writing OSs and applications with more bloat with each new release.

    For years they've been able to justify their approach with "just upgrade your hardware". Mobile devices are a completely different ball game. For one thing, they all run on battery power.

    Android seems to be a heckuva lot lighter weight as an OS compared to Windows mobile. Perhaps the same can be said of Apple's OS for the iPhone.

    IMO, the lighter the OS, the more nimble developers can be to producing compelling and easy to use features that buyers want.
  • Name
    Great post :)

    Now, delete it and everything is ok.

    Windows Phones will rock the place. At least they have REAL 3G usage and they are stable enough to reboot once a month. You must know how to handle them.
  • erick_p
    Yeah, once a month. If all you do is check email and see pictures. Which is not what "smart"phones are for. Windows 6.5 is the crappiest of the bunch at the moment, and if you're unaware of this simple truism it's because you work for Microsoft, or haven't used the other devices, or just don't use the phone to do much.
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