HTML5 vs. Flash: How will the battle play out in 2011?

One of the biggest technology stories of 2010 has been the battle between Flash and HTML5 over who will reign supreme as the standard-bearer for video on the web and beyond.

It is hard to believe something as ‘techy’ as HTML5 would find itself as a headline in major consumer publications, but thanks to a little open letter from Steve Jobs to world, HTML5 soon became a word everyone was talking about. In that letter, Jobs argued several key points on why his popular iPhone and iPad devices would not be supporting the de facto standard for video, Adobe Flash, going so far as to say “We don’t spend a lot of energy on old technology” and reportedly telling Wall Street Journal staff that Flash was a “CPU hog” and a source of “security holes.”

When Jobs speaks people listen, and as a result HTML5 saw a huge boost in adoption rates in 2010. Web cataloging service MeFeedia reported in October that 54% of online video is now available in HTML5 format. Are you thinking “that’s not that impressive, 54% is barely more than half”? Then let’s look at the most amazing part about this statistic. In January of 2010 the percentage of online video that was available in HTML5 was just 10%. That means the percentage of online video available in HTML5 format grew 5X in just 9 months. Can you think of another technology standard showing those kinds of rapid adoption rates? I can’t.

HTML5 and Flash: Choosing the best solution for your business

There is no doubt that HTML5 is demonstrating explosive growth as an adopted standard, but does that mean Flash is dying? Absolutely not. HTML5 should not be considered a replacement technology for Flash, just a competitive one. Although Jobs would like you to believe the Flash versus HTML5 battle is an either/or situation, it isn’t. Each standard offers unique features and functionality that make both of them appropriate depending on the technology goals your company wants to accomplish or the activities you, as a consumer, want to enjoy. For example, you should probably:

Choose HTML5

  • If you are running your video on low-end systems
  • If you are looking to save costs (and not have to purchase Flash licenses)
  • If you want your video/application to be supported on the iPhone, iPad or other Apple platforms
  • If it is important that you work with an open development environment

Choose Flash

  • If your product needs to support a wide variety of browsers, including older models like IE6
  • If you need powerful video streaming and video playback capabilities, like with live events
  • If you are concerned about content protection and want to prevent people from reposting your content
  • If you want to be able to splice in commercials dynamically throughout the video
  • If you need integration with webcams and microphones to support new interactive features like two way video chat

Before you’re tempted to jump on the “Flash is dying” bandwagon, let’s look at the Flash facts as they stand today:

  • 1.2 billion mobile phones are Flash capable
  • 70% of online gaming sites run Flash
  • 98% percent of Internet-enabled desktops use it
  • 85% of top 100 websites use Flash
  • Many major websites use Flash, including Hulu, Disney and YouTube
  • 2-3 million people belong to the Flash developer community
  • 90% of creative professionals have Adobe software on their desktops

A technology that has penetration rates like that clearly is offering value to a lot of people and will not disappear overnight. It is powerful and useful in a variety of different functions and in head-to-head competition against HTML5 it has also managed to fight off some of the “CPU hog” categorizations.

2011: Who will win the video battle?

Despite Flash’s market leadership, HTML5 is clearly being rapidly adopted as a new standard of online video technology, and companies need to prepare their growth strategies to incorporate it. However, it is still early and HTML5 doesn’t give you all the same features and functionality that Flash does today, so you’ll want to consider your options wisely.

The bottom line is that there won’t be a single ‘winner’ when it comes to online video. Apple’s not going to knock out Adobe. Adobe’s not going to eradicate HTML5. All of these technologies and vendors will continue to evolve and, ultimately, consumers will reap the rewards from the innovative solutions that emerge from this competition.

Dominique Jodoin is president and chief executive officer of Bluestreak Technology, maker of an integrated Flash and HTML5 platform for delivering rich media across a variety of devices. He has more than 23 years of experience in the mobile and wireless industry. Prior to joining Bluestreak, he was President Americas at mobile software management company Red Bend Software. He was previously vice president of business development within the Mobile Systems Division of Alcatel, executive vice president at WaterCove Networks, a venture-backed company that was acquired by Alcatel in 2004, and spent 17 years with Ericsson in a variety of executive positions in Canada and around the World.

[Top photo credit: dishhh]

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  • http://alinear.net alinear studio

    Per your arguments for Flash there is no reason that a developer could not stream, live stream or inject content into video dynamically under H.264 for HTML5 Video. For example using Wowza media server and 'Cupertino' style streaming. But that said video encoded to H.264 can be played in Flash and through webkit (Chrome, Safari) browsers. So if you are developing a serious video solution it would be useful to consider supporting both and using JavaScript to differentiate.Some other pros of HTML5 video over Flash:- Interaction to engagement time is much quicker as it does not rely on initializing a secondary plugin and waiting for its UI to load before negotiating a connection to the video.- flash is a CPU and memory hog. It absolutely kills whatever computer or device it is running on.- flash cannot seek to arbitrary points in the video between encoded keyframes. So if you want super smooth seeking (for example for a video editor or app with editor-like capabilities) you have to encode the video with one keyframe per real frame. This makes video huge. HTML video players using H.264 enable seek to any arbitrary point.The biggest hurdle to desktop HTML5 video integration is that nobody can agree on supporting one or all the same CODEC standards, so to support all browsers you have to encode and serve multiple formats. And IE will probably continue to not work right and wreak havoc on commercial web development for some time…

  • http://www.google.com/profiles/dbin78 Dain Binder

    There is room for both. Keep making them both better and we will see where things go. The consumers and businesses will find the winner if one is even needed.

  • http://www.facebook.com/WaltFrench Walt French

    “1.2 billion mobile phones are Flash capable”This claim is disingenuous at best, probably made with the intention to misinform.Macromedia created Flash and it WAS very popular on Japanese phones. But when Adobe bought Macromedia they deprecated the old version of Flash, fired the mobile team that had promoted it and shortly brought out a version that would not run on those phones. Virtually all video content today cannot run on this Flash Lite. Adobe did NOTHING with Flash for mobiles between 2005 and 2008 or 2009, a critical period of inaction.The actual stat is that in the US today, approximately 19% of web-capable phones run Android (fewer worldwide), and something like 40% of US Androids have the OS version 2.2 that provides “support” for Flash. Even of Androids sold today, many top-rated phones run Android 2.1 and may never be upgraded to run Flash. (Many older Android devices have not been upgraded at all. It is expensive for the manufacturer and generates no revenue.)And there is NO other phone system that has ANY Flash support today. So 90%+ of all web-capable phones cannot see any video that is posted as Flash-only. And this is a Big Deal, as smartphones are selling virtually as well as Windows PCs, expected by all to overtake desktops and laptops very soon. They will be the ONLY PC for many millions in the US and billions worldwide, and personal devices are the natural target for many apps like games, which seldom run on those workplace PCs. Today, over a decade after Nokia invented the smartphone, almost 4 years since Apple re-invented it, Adobe has gotten Flash on exactly one of the many smartphone platforms. With the huge proliferation of manufacturers, chips, screens, etc., Adobe has simply been overwhelmed by the task of supporting it on the devices that are sweeping the world. I cannot understand how people believe that Adobe can afford to support it under their old “mostly Windows” approach. They have utterly failed to do so and the challenge is exploding in its complexity. I predict that Adobe will release Flash to the public domain, so that others can develop/support it or watch their developers turn to alternate mechanisms.DanielNYC.Com, CoiRestaurant.Com, and many other supposedly open-for-business websites, please note: by putting up a Flash-only barrier in front of your restaurant websites, you are keeping almost ALL mobile users from getting your street address, phone number, feature events, menu, etc… the very reason you paid all that money to a designer to put up an attractive site.I'm agnostic about whether Flash or HTML5 works “best.” But modern web technology allows a site to offer BOTH, and if you want to make a site available to people who are not sitting at their office PC, you need an alternative mechanism.

  • stonee

    Listening HTML5 for a long time ago. Using flash all the time. Most famous battle about HTML5 and flash is “apple and flash” http://www.ifunia.com/ipad-col

  • LSL713

    “Apple’s not going to knock out Adobe. Adobe’s not going to eradicate HTML5. All of these technologies and vendors will continue to evolve and, ultimately, consumers will reap the rewards from the innovative solutions that emerge from this competition.”I agree that the Flash/HTML5 battle is unlikely to result in an either/or scenario, but rather will hopefully push both sides to innovate and improve. The introduction of the iAd Producer does however highlight the drawbacks of Adobe's products–a stream of releases with little improvement. A new post on TheOnda.org explores the fact that with HTML5, there now is a market opportunity for savvy entrepreneurs to create a full-blown HTML5 authoring environment: http://theonda.org/articles/20

  • Guest

    Thank you for the thoughtful comments on this post. I want to state up front that my intention was to clarify the confusion around Flash vs. HTML5 not to champion one technology over the other. My company, Bluestreak Technology, offers products that support both technologies so I am not biased towards one technology over the other. However, I do want to clear up any statements that you may have found misleading:“1.2 billion devices are Flash enabled.” This statistic came from analyst firm, Strategy Analytics, and you can find Adobe referencing it as a fact in this post: http://www.visionmobile.com/bl…/ However, I can see where this number could be confusing because not all 1.2 billion of those devices support the ‘full version’ of Flash that could be used as a web plug-in to view websites built with Flash or as a platform for external developers to leverage. In fact, of the 1.2 billion, only 10 million of those support the full version of Flash (according to Adobe). The rest support Flash Lite, which is scaled down version of Flash. However, Flash Lite still enables operators to leverage Flash as part of a phone’s user interface and allow device manufacturers to preload Flash-enabled applications prior to shipment.To Walt’s point, here are the devices that support ‘full’ Flash today: http://www.adobe.com/flashplat… and those are primarily Android. However, Adobe publicly announced that “Flash Player 10.1 was downloaded more than 2 million times from Android Market…with BlackBerry platform, HP webOS 2.0, future versions of Windows® Phone, LiMo, MeeGo, and Symbian OS also expected to support Flash Player 10.1” I have to assume that a public company would not issue this statement in a press release unless there were ‘real’ ongoing efforts underway for those platforms to support Flash in the future.Net/Net: A variety of device manufacturers are still working with Flash and Google, in particular, is championing it as a differentiator on their devices. It is also a technology that, no matter how you are counting, is available on over 10 million of today’s most popular devices, including the DROID and Evo phones, with more coming in the future. I wouldn’t recommend discounting it.

  • DominiqueJodoin

    Thank you for the thoughtful comments on this post. I want to state up front that my intention was to clarify the confusion around Flash vs. HTML5 not to champion one technology over the other. My company, Bluestreak Technology, offers products that support both technologies so I am not biased towards either one. However, I do want to clear up any statements that you may have found misleading:“1.2 billion devices are Flash enabled.” This statistic came from analyst firm, Strategy Analytics, and you can find Adobe referencing it as a fact in this post: http://www.visionmobile.com/bl…/ However, I can see where this number could be confusing because not all 1.2 billion of those devices support the ‘full version’ of Flash that could be used as a web plug-in to view websites built with Flash or as a platform for external developers to leverage. In fact, of the 1.2 billion, only 10 million of those support the full version of Flash (according to Adobe). The rest support Flash Lite, which is scaled down version of Flash. However, Flash Lite still enables operators to leverage Flash as part of a phone’s user interface and allow device manufacturers to preload Flash-enabled applications prior to shipment.To Walt’s point, here are the devices that support ‘full’ Flash today: http://www.adobe.com/flashplat… and those are primarily Android. However, Adobe publicly announced that “Flash Player 10.1 was downloaded more than 2 million times from Android Market…with BlackBerry platform, HP webOS 2.0, future versions of Windows® Phone, LiMo, MeeGo, and Symbian OS also expected to support Flash Player 10.1” I have to assume that a public company would not issue this statement in a press release unless there were ‘real’ ongoing efforts underway for those platforms to support Flash in the future.Net/Net: A variety of device manufacturers are still working with Flash and Google, in particular, is championing it as a differentiator on their devices. It is also a technology that, no matter how you are counting, is available on over 10 million of today’s most popular devices, including the DROID and Evo phones, with more coming in the future. I wouldn’t recommend discounting it.

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