Mobile

IDC predicts Windows Phone at No. 2, Android on top by 2015

In its latest forecast of the smartphone market, research firm IDC has predicted that Windows Phone 7 will capture the No. 2 spot in market share by 2015, between Google’s Android at No. 1 and Apple iOS at No. 3. Rival research house Gartner also predicted similar results in April.

The predictions by IDC and Gartner stem from the new partnership between Microsoft and Nokia, with the idea in mind that Nokia will help spread the WP7 platform in markets outside the U.S. IDC writes:

Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will benefit from Nokia’s support, scope, and breadth within markets where Nokia has historically had a strong presence. Until Nokia begins introducing Windows Phone-powered smartphones in large volumes in 2012, Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will only capture a small share of the market as the release of Mango-powered smartphones are not expected to reach the market until late 2011. Nevertheless, assuming that Nokia’s transition to Windows Phone goes smoothly, the OS is expected to defend a number 2 rank and more than 20% share in 2015.

Outside of its high praises for Windows Phone, the rest of what IDC is predicting is par for the course. It expects Google’s Android OS to grow from its current 38.9 percent to 43.8 percent of smartphone market share.

“A significant and growing list of vendors who have made Android the cornerstone of their respective smartphone strategies is propelling the growth of Android,” IDC wrote.

When it comes to Apple’s iOS, IDC expects the platform’s share to decline from 18.2 percent 16.9 percent. IDC makes the case that iOS will remain the No. 3 player in total market share because it has already incurred most of its gains for the projected period.

“After an initial explosive growth period, iOS is expected to grow at a more modest pace throughout the latter half of the forecast as the smartphone market matures and diversifies,” IDC wrote.

IDC indicates that other smartphone OSes in the marketplace are expected to shrink. Not surprisingly Nokia’s Symbian platform, which has been abandoned, is expected to drop from 20.6 to 0.1 percent. RIM’s BlackBerry OS could drop from 14.2 to 13.4 percent.

While it’s hard to predict what will happen in four years, I agree for the most part about Android. It appears to be on a wild ride upward that won’t stop in the near future. I also expect Windows Phone 7 to make significant gains in the next few years with Nokia’s help in emerging markets but not necessarily at the rate IDC is predicting. And who knows what will happen with iOS? If Apple puts iOS on even more mobile devices, its potential could soar.

IDC’s full market share predictions are below:

IDC numbers

We’ll be exploring the most disruptive mobile trends at our fourth annual MobileBeat 2011 conference, on July 12-13 at the Palace Hotel in San Francisco. It will focus on the rise of 4G and how it delivers the promise of true mobile computing. We’re also accepting entries for our mobile startup competition at the show. MobileBeat is co-located with our GamesBeat 2011 conference this year. To register, click on this link. Sponsors can message us at sponsors@venturebeat.com.


Mobile developer or publisher? VentureBeat is studying mobile marketing automation. Fill out our 5-minute survey, and we'll share the data with you.
0 comments

Trackbacks

  1. [...] IDC predicts Windows Phone at No. 2, Android on top by 2015 By Keith on the iPad ⋅ June 10, 2011 ⋅ Post a comment Filed Under  BlackBerry IDC predicts Windows Phone at No. 2, Android on top by 2015http://venturebeat.com/2011/06/10/idc-predicts-windows-phone-at-no-2-android-on-top-by-2015/ [...]

  2. [...] the original post here: IDC predicts Windows Phone at No. 2, Android on top by 2015 – Venturebeat.com Tags: apple, smartphone, windows, [...]

  3. [...] 本文由Tech2IPO作者BevanLi编译自venturebeat,点此查看原文地址。如果您对Tech2IPO其他内容也感兴趣,请通过RSS订阅我们,或者在微博上关注我们的最新动态。 [...]

  4. [...] de 20% de part de marché. Ce qui, mathématiquement, relèguerait iOS en 3ème position. -Source :[Venture Beat ] (10 juin [...]

  5. [...] that is trying to build up the market share of a rival phone OS. Both Gartner and IDC predict that Nokia and Microsoft’s WP7 push will lead WP7 to be the No. 2 phone OS in the world by 2015, over Apple’s iOS. Apple certainly can’t be happy that this agreement could help make [...]

  6. [...] smartphones and tablets with the Android OS. Android’s market share is growing and is projected to be the world leading OS in 2015 by two major research firms. RIM’s BlackBerry OS, on the other hand, is projected by the same [...]

  7. [...] Android OS. Android’s market share is growing and is projected to be the world leading OS in 2015 by two major research firms. RIM’s BlackBerry OS, on [...]

  8. [...] smartphones and tablets with the Android OS. Android’s market share is growing and is projected to be the world leading smartphone OS by 2015 by two major research firms. RIM’s BlackBerry OS, on the other hand, is projected by the same [...]

  9. [...] smartphones and tablets with the Android OS. Android’s market share is growing and is projected to be the world leading smartphone OS by 2015 by two major research firms. RIM’s BlackBerry OS, on the other hand, is projected by the same [...]

  10. [...] smartphones and tablets with the Android OS. Android’s market share is growing and is projected to be the world leading smartphone OS by 2015 by two major research firms. RIM’s BlackBerry OS, on the other hand, is projected by the same [...]

  11. [...] BlackBerry OS used to have a considerable lead in the smartphone market worldwide but is now projected to be in fourth place by 2015, after Android, Winodows Phone 7, and iOS. So revamping the OS and releasing more powerful phones [...]

  12. [...] BlackBerry OS used to have a considerable lead in the smartphone market worldwide but is now projected to be in fourth place by 2015, after Android, Windows Phone 7, and iOS. So revamping the OS and releasing more powerful phones to [...]

  13. [...] has good reason to shake up their strategy. Recent projections by IDC and Gartner both have iOS in the number three spot after Android and Windows Phone 7 by 2015. Presumably, this comes from the many manufacturers [...]

  14. [...] has good reason to shake up their strategy. Recent projections by IDC and Gartner both have iOS in the number three spot after Android and Windows Phone 7 by 2015. Presumably, this comes from the many manufacturers [...]

  15. [...] BlackBerry OS used to have a substantial lead in a smartphone marketplace worldwide though is now projected to be in fourth place by 2015, after Android, Windows Phone 7, and iOS. So revamping a OS and releasing some-more absolute phones [...]

  16. [...] has good reason to shake up their strategy. Recent projections by IDC and Gartner both have iOS within the number three spot after Android and Windows Phone 7 by 2015. Presumably, this comes from the various manufacturers [...]

  17. [...] OS devices used to have a big lead in smartphones, but by 2015, they are expected to be in fourth place behind Android, Windows Phone 7, and [...]

  18. [...] OS devices used to have a big lead in smartphones, but by 2015, they are expected to be in fourth place behind Android, Windows Phone 7, and [...]

  19. [...] evolve to effectively compete.” BlackBerry OS devices used to have a big lead in smartphones, but by 2015, they are expected to be in fourth place behind Android, Windows Phone 7, and [...]

  20. [...] OS devices used to have a big lead in smartphones, but by 2015, they are expected to be in fourth place behind Android, Windows Phone 7, and [...]

  21. [...] tredjestørste spiller på mobilmarkedet, når det gælder styresystemer i 2015. Det samme siger IDC. Hvis det bliver tilfældet, kan de muligvis stadig være den enkelte virksomhed, der sælger flest [...]

  22. [...] During Ballmer’s 10-year tenure, Microsoft has tripled revenue and doubled net income. Legacy products such as Office, Exchange and SharePoint have been transitioned to the cloud. Windows 7 is a huge hit with over 400 million licenses sold, and early looks at the upcoming Windows 8 are resulting in rave reviews. Windows Phone 7 is a very late entrant into the modern smartphone category, but it is already being declared the number three player, with its innovative user interface and upcoming distribution via Nokia. Some analysts even predict that it will outpace Android within a few years. [...]

  23. [...] During Ballmer’s 10-year tenure, Microsoft has tripled revenue and doubled net income. Legacy products such as Office, Exchange and SharePoint have been transitioned to the cloud. Windows 7 is a huge hit with over 400 million licenses sold, and early looks at the upcoming Windows 8 are resulting in rave reviews. Windows Phone 7 is a very late entrant into the modern smartphone category, but it is already being declared the number three player, with its innovative user interface and upcoming distribution via Nokia. Some analysts even predict that it will outpace Android within a few years. [...]

  24. [...] During Ballmer’s 10-year tenure, Microsoft has tripled revenue and doubled net income. Legacy products such as Office, Exchange and SharePoint have been transitioned to the cloud. Windows 7 is a huge hit with over 400 million licenses sold, and early looks at the upcoming Windows 8 are resulting in rave reviews. Windows Phone 7 is a very late entrant into the modern smartphone category, but it is already being declared the number three player, with its innovative user interface and upcoming distribution via Nokia. Some analysts even predict that it will outpace Android within a few years. [...]

  25. [...] During Ballmer’s 10-year tenure, Microsoft has tripled income and doubled net income. Legacy products such as Office, Exchange and SharePoint have been transitioned to a cloud. Windows 7 is a outrageous strike with over 400 million licenses sold, and early looks during a arriving Windows 8 are ensuing in soap-box reviews. Windows Phone 7 is a unequivocally late entrant into a complicated smartphone category, though it is already being announced a series 3 player, with a innovative user interface and arriving placement around Nokia. Some analysts even predict that it will overtake Android within a few years. [...]

  26. [...] research firms, including Gartner and IDC, have predicted the Windows Phone 7 platform will be the No. 2 overall smartphone platform in the world by…. What hasn’t been clear up to this point is how well Microsoft could emulate Android’s [...]

  27. [...] research firms, including Gartner and IDC, have predicted the Windows Phone 7 platform will be the No. 2 overall smartphone platform in the world by…. What hasn’t been clear up to this point is how well Microsoft could emulate Android’s [...]

  28. [...] research firms, including Gartner and IDC, have predicted the Windows Phone 7 platform will be the No. 2 overall smartphone platform in the world by…. What hasn’t been clear up to this point is how well Microsoft could emulate Android’s success [...]

  29. [...] the addition of LTE and NFC capabilities.Several research firms, including Gartner and IDC, have predicted the Windows Phone 7 platform will be the No. 2 overall smartphone platform in the world by…. What hasn’t been clear up to this point is how well Microsoft could emulate Android’s success [...]

  30. [...] research firms, including Gartner and IDC, have predicted the Windows Phone 7 platform will be the No. 2 overall smartphone platform in the world by…. What hasn’t been clear up to this point is how well Microsoft could emulate Android’s success [...]

  31. [...] may have contributed to the IDC’s recent prediction that the Windows Phone OS will hold the second largest portion of smartphone market share globally [...]