Sebastian was on the analyst panel at our GamesBeat 2009 conference today in San Francisco. At the panel, Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter also said that recently announced technology OnLive will create value for the consumer, and that Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo will lose in the equation.
David Cole, of DFC Intelligence, said: “We know that consumers spend a whole lot of money on games.” Currently, he added, two-out-of-three dollars goes to Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo.
Pachter said the game industry can have 10 percent annual macro growth forever, because much of that will fueled by China and India.
“I actually think we’ve seen the last generation of consoles,” stated Pachter. He predicts that Nintendo will upgrade the Wii to high-definition version.
Microsoft is in a strong enough position to try another generation of Xbox, but Pachter said, “I think the publishers will tell them to pound sand. ‘We haven’t made any money this cycle, and we’re not going to support it.’” Sony, he said, won’t make another console until they make a profit on the Playstation 3. “They will make a profit in 2015.”
Cole notes that Sony have said they have a 10-year plan. “From a financial standpoint, they need that 10yyear plan to work.” But he believes it’ll be closer to 2012.