First Solar (FSLR.O), the world's largest manufacturer of thin-film solar modules based in Tempe, Ariz., has been very vocal about its positive outlook for the next year, especially with its investors. But is its optimism merited? And if so, do others in the solar industry have a watershed year to look forward to as well?
The company says it expects revenue between $2.7 and $2.9 billion in 2010, which exceeds industry watchdog predictions of $2.4 billion. This is a pretty lofty goal, considering that no quarterly revenue broke $500 million this year.
Then again, the economy really did take a bite out of solar in 2009, with fewer home and commercial owners opting for rooftop installations, as well as less construction on capital-intensive solar arrays and power plants. But with the economy rebounding and government grants taking hold, 2010 could be a different ball game. Other big solar names, like Fremont, Calif.-based Solyndra for instance, seem to think so, working around the clock to get new assembly facilities up and running to meet increased demand.
The industry was also hurting this year from plummeting solar equipment prices. With a glut of solar panels and modules outstripping demand, prices were so low that it became difficult for some of the smaller players in the space to stay afloat. But there is evidence that this is also turning around as demand, stimulated by policy changes and subsidies in countries like Germany and Spain, starts to catch up.
First Solar is relying on all of these trends, especially a bump up in orders from utilities and plant contractors in Europe and California. The company's CEO, Robert Gillette, went as far as to predict that demand for its products will jump 35 percent by 2012. Operating cash flow should hit $790 million next year, he said.
He better hope he's right, considering that First Solar is looking at laying down as much as $900 million for new module assembly plants in Malaysia that use advanced semiconductor technology. All told, it plans to have ten new production lines up and running by 2011, increasing its output by 48 percent.
While First Solar is often somewhat of an unofficial trendsetter for smaller solar companies turning out modules, working on thin-film, and even selling photovoltaic panels, these pie-in-the-sky numbers don't say much about what will actually happen to its groupies. The company is in a good spot, with its scale, its shareholders, and deal flow. Even companies doing what its doing, like Nanosolar, Global Solar Energy and Suntech, may not see as much success in 2010.