Are Q&A startups a threat to Google?

The classic movie Monty Python and the Holy Grail includes a scene in which King Arthur and his men ignore warnings about a killer rabbit with huge fangs. Only after one of the knights is ferociously attacked do they finally believe that such cuddly-looking creature could be the “most foul, cruel and bad-tempered thing you ever set eyes on.”

The same can be said about the numerous Question & Answer players that people unwisely dismiss but which are working hard to develop fangs and become a danger to Google’s current search dominance.

Q&A companies like Quora, Peerpong and others are seeking to become the next Google in what many are eyeing as the next stage of search: capturing specific knowledge and providing the best answers to any question through the Internet.

One example U.S. players might follow is Naver.com, which is South Korea’s leading search engine. In 2002, it launched its “knowledge search” service, a user-generated Q&A service that helped Naver displace rival Daum as the market leader. For the past several years, Naver has retained 70% of Korea’s search market and is number six worldwide, while keeping Google at a distant 2% or less of the Korea market.

One twist to its market leadership in South Korea is that Naver keeps all of its content blocked off from all other search engines. This strategy is unlikely to work for a small, new startup entrant in the search market, since it would need traffic and revenue from Google’s search queries. But what if a large existing company, say Facebook, built a massive Q&A database and closed it to Google and others? Already having 500 million devoted users would create a compelling reason to keep its new Q&A content walled off.

Analysis of the Q&A Landscape

The U.S market is crowded with various approaches to Q&A. There are targeted expert networks, such as Gerson Lehrman and LivePerson that pay people for their time and expertise to answer specific questions about an industry or field of study. Gerson Lehrman is the gold standard for expert networks and has been for over a decade. Its primary clients are hedge funds and private equity funds seeking industry knowledge that helped them generate over $300 million in revenues. LivePerson is a poor man’s Gerson Lehrman, with a stable of less top-tier experts, but it still generated a healthy $87 million last year. The problem is that most if not all of the Q&A sessions for these two companies are conducted over the phone, so the content is not searchable or indexed for the Internet.

Mahalo is a user-generated search engine that has tried paying users to incentivize them to generate answers. This hasn’t worked out too well for the company since the overall content quality is low. I assume it’s driven by how Mahalo’s user base was seeded, since they targeted casual users versus experts or leaders within a specific field.

The quality of the questions and answers on many Q&A sites — Mahalo, Fluther, Yahoo Answers, and Formspring — reminds me of grade school textbooks or reading through grocery store tabloids. Which really excludes them from being serious contenders for a position as the next Google. Meanwhile, Gerson Lehrman, LivePerson, JustAnswer, and others are excluded because the majority of their content is not online. Niche services such as LinkedIn’s Answers, FixYa (product problems), and StackOverflow (programmers) are too narrowly focused to be considered rivals to Google.

The Real Competition?

I currently see four viable players in the next-generation Q&A arena: Google (because of its recent acquisition of Vark), Facebook, Quora, and PeerPong.

I believe Google acquired Vark as insurance against the potential threat to its core search business. It will be interesting to see how Google integrates Vark’s technology into its social efforts and the widely rumored competitor to Facebook it’s said to be working on. Vark’s semantic engine integrated with Google’s existing vast amount of user data could develop into a powerful application.

It looks like Facebook currently doesn’t have a semantic engine behind its Facebook Questions product, but through the sheer size of its user base Facebook has already created an active service, which will only keep exponentially growing.

Now that Quora has opened up its platform to the general public, it seems as if Facebook Questions and Quora are on colliding paths. Quora still has far more high-quality answers but will inevitably see a decline in quality as it scales. My question: how will it scale effectively in an increasingly competitive space and maintain its initial — and desirable — high quality?

PeerPong is another entrant with a public-facing Q&A platform, but is similar to Vark in that it has an analytical engine to find the best experts to answer your questions. PeerPong is also more focused on providing its technology as a white-label to other platforms.

The Ultimate Answer

It will be fascinating to see how the Q&A market develops over the next several years. Will startups like Quora and PeerPong be able to rapidly accumulate a massive database of knowledge, or will an existing Internet juggernaut such as Google or Facebook win out? Can Quora organically build a serious contender while maintaining quality, or does PeerPong’s white-label strategy make sense?

It seems Facebook is in the best position at this point with its 500 million social network users, social graphs and public interest graphs. Google doesn’t have the in-depth layers of information on people that Facebook does to target, connect and create a massive, high quality Q&A site.

Twitter could be a dark horse in this race. With the type of information and quick back-and-forth conversations it records, it could be very interesting to see Twitter launch into this space.

I asked Quora cofounder Charlie Cheever and PeerPong CEO Ro Choy how they would define success for their companies a year from now. Here’s what they said:

Cheever: It’s hard to talk about specifics in the long term, but we like to talk about getting the 90% of information that is in people’s heads but not on the Internet yet onto the web, so we’re pretty focused on building up that database of knowledge and helping people learn what they want to know from it.

Choy: Our expectation is that we will reach a 100 million people index, so that for any query we will have 20-100 people who have a material amount of knowledge for the query. We will be able to find the very best people to answer that question and a large number of people that link back to that question.

Whoever comes out on top, it will be exciting to see how this space develops over the next few years.

Bernard Moon is Managing Director of the Lunsford Group, which is a private holding company consisting of entities in technology, media, research & consulting, health care, and real estate. He blogs at Silicon Moon.

  • BenHill123

    aardvark is using facebook graph, but by the way quora also uses facebook graph and its content is indexed by google.

  • http://www.stefanobernardi.com/ stefanobernardi

    Mmm not really sure, people will still use Google a lot to search and end up on Quora.I see Quora mostly as a competitor of Wikipedia.

  • digimags101

    I think Facebook is going to be the company that pulls of Q&A and makes a real change to search if they get it right. I think what so many of these companies don't understand is that I want answers from people I trust (my friends). I don't care what primary care physician a person that I've never met sees. But if one of my friends recommends one, I'll make the appointment. Facebooks biggest problem to date has been the lack of the ability to wall off small groups of friends and ask a question only of them. I think they're beginning to address this with their groups feature.In the end, I believe the winner of the Q&A battle (and therefore a lot of search) will be the company that can offer me answers from a group of trusted advisers. Facebook has the jump on that because it is already the home of my existing friend relationships. LinkedIn might be able to come in second as a home for business questions.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/LFTVI5ALQHKIZAUUBOUZD64CJM Sandeep

    facebook is absent in China, I wonder how that will affect the potential reach of facebook questions

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/LFTVI5ALQHKIZAUUBOUZD64CJM Sandeep

    facebook reach is not unlimited, facebook is banned in a number of countries including china.

  • http://twitter.com/flipside1300 M. Tyndall

    I'm pretty sure I have a new take on Q&A that could redraw the whole landscape, I wonder which company would be the most interested…

  • modelportfolio2003

    I actively use Aardvark (Vark) from Google and find it to be very relevant to what I need. I in turn provide my input happily in exchange. I believe Aardvark can and should become an essential part of Google's social efforts. Google understands the Naver experience better than anyone else in South Korea and has learned valuable lessons. I believe there were other technical and cultural issues to explain Naver's success in South Korea to explain its success. I am not sure how readily they apply outside Korea. So far we have not seen anyone come close to Google in search, despite years of effort. A new wrinkle like Q & A search is interesting but expect it to remain niche.

  • http://twitter.com/ronen_perets Ronen Perets

    Yet another relevant reference from the same movie. When they are asked what is the speed of a stork, while tying to cross the bridge, and they ask in return whether it's European of African. Talk about Q&A

  • canadadrugs

    Google in the Chinese market due to the origin of intellectual property is stolen by a wave of Gmail Hacks allegedly perpetrated by the Chinese as reported by the news. Google has demanded action and refused to the Chinese. So Google decided to mourn over it and create a new story around the world the same.Canadian Pharmacy

  • http://twitter.com/petelehrman Peter Lehrman

    A lot of this discussion depends on what kind of customer your firm is trying to serve. Highly complex and nuanced questions for corporations or investment firms is not likely going to be addressed by Quora or other applications which require that you distribute the content broadly. Many corporations or investment firms won't ask their most pressing questions in open forums b/c of the risk it poses to their disclosure of strategic intent or investment intent. Luckily for Google, Quora, Facebook, Gerson Lehrman Group and others, there are essentially an infinite amount of questions that need to be answered out there, and many firms will organize Q&A platforms to serve the unique needs or horizontal or vertical markets. Also, don't forget about Opzi, Chatter, Yammer, and other intra-enterprise apps where people seek, source and provide expertise. Peter LehrmanCEO I AxialMarket, Inc.

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